This morning's UK home price report came in at -12.7% year over year. Since this was an August report, this is relatively current compared to most of the US housing data that we've been issued.
The UK housing bubble popping may very well be louder than the one in the USA. That's very hard to imagine. But facts are what they are, and the race to the bottom of this cesspool of consumer leverage is heating up.
It is global this time, indeed.
The Ruble was down -7.5% in August, so the follow through here in September, is as alarming as that tiger hunting photo of Putin that we flashed you in this past weekend's postings.
The US Dollar is winning; Global Currency markets are losing, big time.
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The first one looks at attributes of in-home vs. out-of-home consumption of meals. Of course the slide is bullish for K and bearish for the restaurant industry.
The second one looks at market share for in-home vs. out-of-home consumption. The ability of the restaurant industry to capture additional market share in the U.S. will be dependent on the affordability factor. But the international market opportunity for the restaurant industry is very different. I’m often asked - Do you see international growth as a material growth vehicle for the casual dining industry?
- The answer from this chart is clearly yes! But it will take time….
At the same time, the Volatility Index (VIX) is breaking out this morning, trading +6% at 22.65 as the US market hits her intraday lows. From a quantitative perspective in my model, a VIX trading anywhere north of the 21.63 level is bearish for US stocks.
From a risk factor perspective (for those of you who manage risk), these are two glaringly obvious facts. Both are "Trends". Both are negative.
Be careful out there,
The 4 week moving average moves to 438,000, and this elevated level of claims does not augur well for tomorrow's monthly employment report. This is not new, but rather a reminded of what I have been explaining.
My year end target rate for US unemployment remains +6-7%.
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