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Below is an excerpt from a complimentary research note by our Healthcare Team of Tom Tobin, William McMahon, and Justin Venneri. If you are interested for more Healthcare research, check out our Sector Pro Product Health Care Pro. Click HERE to learn more. |
Despite a national surge in COVID cases which began in early July as a result of the Delta variant, the prospect of lockdowns remains largely unlikely.
We think evidence of the pent-up demand we forecasted earlier this year in a number of our proprietary data trackers is relatively clear and reflected in National Vision's (EYE) guide, and if delta cases roll over as we expect, the momentum seen in 2Q21 may resume.
For this morning’s call-out, we have chosen to highlight our forecast algorithms for EYE's two largest brands, America’s Best and Eyeglass World.
For 2Q 2021, our forecast algorithms continued to show at least directional accuracy in estimating both businesses' comparable store sales growth.
We landed within 150bps of the reported metric for Eyeglass World (HE: 68.9% v Reported: 67.6%).
Although it's too early to call the next quarter at this point, the latest refresh of these algorithms continues to forecast annual growth for both businesses.
It looks like the numbers are rolling over a bit sequentially, but we will continue to feed the machine its monthly diet of data updates, which will strengthen the output.
