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Initial Claims Fall Sharply - Starting to Get Interesting

The headline initial claims number fell 24k last week to 457k (22k net of the revision). Rolling claims came in at 446k, a decrease of 10k over the previous week. This significant improvement moved claims near the lows of the year on both the rolling and reported series. There have been five weeks in 2010 where rolling claims fell by 10,000 or more. Today’s report brings the series closer to the 375-400k range we are looking for before unemployment can begin to improve.

Initial Claims Fall Sharply - Starting to Get Interesting - 1

 

Initial Claims Fall Sharply - Starting to Get Interesting - 3

In the table below, we chart US equity correlations with Initial Claims, the Dollar Index, and US 10Y Treasury yields on a weekly basis going back 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years.

Initial Claims Fall Sharply - Starting to Get Interesting - 2

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur