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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 9, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.98% downside to 1199 and 0.88% upside to 1234.  Equity futures rebound from lows to trade modestly above fair value, tracking numbers such as Tyco, reporting Q4 EPS $0.74 ex-items vs Reuters $0.66, and updates across European companies. In economic data today: Redbook Chain Store, Sep Wholesale Inventories and ABC Consumer Comfort Index.

  • Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) posted 3Q adj. EPS 19c vs est. 17c
  • American Public Education (APEI) reported 3Q EPS 30c vs est. 29c
  • Boeing (BA) said Saudi Arabian Airlines ordered 12 Boeing 777s in a contract valued at $3.3b
  • Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO) reported 3Q rev. $695.1m vs est. $698.4m
  • Emdeon (EM) said it sees 2010 rev. at low-end of $1.0b-$1.06b range vs. est $997.9b
  • EnerNOC (ENOC) sees 4Q rev. $20m-$24m vs est. $28.8m
  • Genomic Health (GHDX) posted 3Q EPS 12c vs est. <1c
  • Hologic (HOLX) sees 1Q adj. EPS ~28c vs est. 31c 
  • Keynote Systems (KEYN) boosted Q dividend to 6c-shr from 5c-shr
  • McDermott International (MDR) reported 3Q adj. EPS ex-items 44c vs est. 28c
  • Priceline.com (PCLN) forecast 4Q adj. EPS $2.91-$3.06 vs est. $2.68
  • Rackspace Hosting (RAX) reported rev. $199.7m vs est. $197.6m
  • SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCLN) boosted 2010 EPS forecast to 41c-46c from 31c-35c; says it expects “substantial expenses” in connection with previously disclosed SEC, DoJ probe
  • Warnaco (WRC) raised FY adj. EPS forecast to $3.45-$3.55 from $3.40-$3.50, vs est. $3.53

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.33%), S&P (0.21%), Nasdaq +0.04%, Russell +0.02%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +2.59%, S&P +3.38%, Nasdaq +2.9%, Russell +4.75%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +5.74%, S&P +7.19%, Nasdaq +8.93%, Russell +8.97%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +9.39%, S&P +9.7%, Nasdaq +13.7%, Russell +17.81%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.34%, Materials +0.24%, Tech +0.05%, Consumer Discretionary (0.13%), Telecom (0.28%), Consumer Staples (0.29%), Healthcare (0.3%), Industrials (0.33%), Utilities (0.62%), and Financials (0.77%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Coventry Health +6.63%, JDSU +4.91% and Halliburton +4.73%/NY TIMES -4.93%, Micron Tech -4.68% and Anadarko -4.29%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -238 (-749)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 909.45 (-26.86%)
  • VIX: 18.26 -1.40% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-15.77%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.62 from 1.73 -6.41%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 17.10 -0.406 (-2.319%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.19 from 2.20

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 315.25 +0.54% - up 10 of last 11 days
  • Oil: 87.06 +0.24% - BULLISH - up 6 straight days
  • COPPER: 395.65 +0.20% - BULLISH  - up 5 of the last 6 days
  • GOLD: 1,405.13 +0.63% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.39.41 -0.65% - BEARISH - looking to be down for 3 days in a row
  • DOLLAR: 77.027 +0.63%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: -0.43%%; DAX +0.69%; CAC 40 +0.74%
  • European markets, after a mixed open have moved higher to currently trade near session highs.
  • A positive response to corporate results from Barclay's and Vodafone outweighed continuing worries over the “burning” peripheral Europe, with peripheral debt spreads widened.
  • All but two industry groups trade higher with construction, basic resources and banks the leading gainers.
  • Healthcare and financial services trade lower.
  • UK Sept Manufacturing production +4.8% y/y vs consensus +4.9% and prior revised to +6.1%
  • UK Sept Industrial production +3.8% y/y vs consensus +3.5% and prior revised to +4.3%
  • Germany Oct Final CPI +1.3% y/y vs preliminary +1.3%
  • France Sep Industrial Production at 04:30 ET  

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei (0.4%); Hang Seng (1.0%); Shanghai Composite (0.8%)
  • Asian markets ended the day mixed.
  • Tech stocks retreated on earnings concerns, but South Korea edged up.
  • Japan retreated on profit-taking and a stronger yen.
  • China fell on fears that higher inflation may lead to further monetary tightening as the central bank surprised people by auctioning one-year bills at a higher yield than last week.
  •  Japan September current account surplus ¥1.960T vs survey ¥1.664T.
  • Japan October M2 +2.7% y/y. 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER