Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones.
We’ve had a lot of questions about what #Quad we are in right now, since our #Quad map currently shows Q3 2021 is #Quad4 (even though Keith has been crystal clear on this topic in his morning missives).
At the start of the quarter on July 1st, we had a 95.1% conditional probability of being in #Quad4 (mathematically). As the quarter has progressed, the probability of #Quad3 has gone from 2.4% to 32.3%.
So, on a rate of change basis, the probability of #Quad3 has been accelerating. This fact, combined with our market signals (heavy weight on those in these interesting COVID comparison times) are what has underscored the #Quad3 call.
Beyond Q3, it gets even more interesting. It's a fair fight in Q4 between all the regimes:
Anyone else wishing for the glorious days of #Quad2s for as long as the eye could see? Loading up on speculative small caps certainly was fun for a couple of quarters!