CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Have #Quad3 Discipline?

07/29/21 08:30AM EDT

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones.

We’ve had a lot of questions about what #Quad we are in right now, since our #Quad map currently shows Q3 2021 is #Quad4 (even though Keith has been crystal clear on this topic in his morning missives).

At the start of the quarter on July 1st, we had a 95.1% conditional probability of being in #Quad4 (mathematically). As the quarter has progressed, the probability of #Quad3 has gone from 2.4% to 32.3%. 

So, on a rate of change basis, the probability of #Quad3 has been accelerating.  This fact, combined with our market signals (heavy weight on those in these interesting COVID comparison times) are what has underscored the #Quad3 call.

Beyond Q3, it gets even more interesting. It's a fair fight in Q4 between all the regimes:

  • #Quad4 conditional probability at 36.5%
  • #Quad3 at 18.1%
  • #Quad2 at 15.1%
  • #Quad1 at 30.3%

Anyone else wishing for the glorious days of #Quad2s for as long as the eye could see?  Loading up on speculative small caps certainly was fun for a couple of quarters!

CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Have #Quad3 Discipline? - 7 29 2021 8 07 22 AM

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