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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 8, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -2.53% downside to 1195 and 0.09% upside to 1227.  Equity futures are trading lower tracking weakness in European markets and following a good rally last week underpinned by the FOMC’s QE2 announcement. No important economic data is due today.

  • Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) may rise to $60 on China, India demand, Barron’s said, citing Brean Murray Carrett & Co. analyst Jeremy Sussman
  • AvalonBay Communities (AVB) may sell up to $500m of common stock over three years, according to Nov. 5 filing
  • Cablevision Systems (CVC) said its avg. cable TV price may increase 2.88%
  • CommScope (CTV): TPG Capital may top Carlyle Group’s $3.9b offer, WSJ reported Nov. 5
  • Emcor (EME) CEO Frank MacInnis will sell 160,000 shares
  • GT Solar International (SOLR) raised fiscal 2011 EPS forecast to $1-$1.20 from 90c-$1, vs est. 93c
  • IDT (IDT) will pay 22c dividend and comparable payout in fiscal 2Q; also pursuing tax-free spin-off of Genie Energy
  • JDS Uniphase (JDSU) is undervalued and may rise as online video traffic grows, Barron’s said
  • Mariner Energy (ME) reported 3Q adj. EPS 2c vs est. 8c
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Demand for Kinect video game console looked solid on first day of sales, UBS said
  • Pfizer (PFE): Pfizer’s experimental pill for rheumatoid arthritis reduced pain, inflammation for 71% patients, according to study; drug may post annual sales of $2b, Bernstein says

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.08%, S&P +0.39%, Nasdaq +0.06%, Russell +0.43%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +2.93%, S&P +3.60%, Nasdaq +2.85%, Russell +4.73%.
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +6.08%, S&P +7.42%, Nasdaq +8.88%, Russell +8.94%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +9.74%, S&P +9.93%, Nasdaq +13.65%, Russell +17.78%
  • Sector Performance: Financials +2.12%, Industrials +0.54%, Consumer Discretionary +0.53%, Energy +0.47%, Materials +0.33%, Tech +0.03%, Utilities (0.01%), Consumer Staples (0.40%), Healthcare (0.53%), and Telecom (0.60%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Massey Energy +11.21%, Fluor +9.50% and Boston Scientific +6.63%/Whole Foods -3.77%, CBS -3.68% and Allergan -3.63%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 511 (+1539)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1243.47 (-9.55%)
  • VIX: 18.26 -1.40% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-15.77%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.62 from 1.73 -6.41%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.80 -0.304 (-1.779%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.20 from 2.20

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 313.56 +0.40% - up 9 of last 10 days
  • Oil: 86.85 +0.42% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 394.85 +093% - BULLISH
  • GOLD: 1,396.72 +1.14% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4032 -1.12% - BEARISH
  • DOLLAR: 76.548 +0.88%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.28%); DAX (0.07%); CAC 40 (-0.05%)
  • Markets are mixed with major indices finding some support on reports that Deutsche Bank had received several offers for BHF Bank, edging the sector into positive territory despite Commerzbank's results disappointing.
  • Basic materials led gains, one of only six sectors to trade higher.
  • Telecommunications and utilities lead decliners.
  • Greece's PM says will not call a snap general election after provisional estimates indicated the ruling party would win 7 of the 13 regional elections held over the weekend

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei +1.11%, Hang Seng +0.35%; Shanghai Composite +0.96%
  • Japan rose on a weaker yen and US jobs data.
  • NTT DoCoMo rose 1% on a report its next-gen phone service will be priced lower than the market was expecting
  • Shanghai-based companies powered China higher after Walt Disney (DIS) signed an agreement to build a theme park in the city
  • Qantas weighed on Australia, falling 2% after saying it is keeping its Airbus A380s grounded for longer than its initially planned 48 hours, having found potential issues with three engines on two planes 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER