9/03/2008 12:21:27 PM "Boston Fed President Rosengren says US unemployment rate may rise above 6%"
I'm continue to be in print with an estimate for the US Unemployment rate to hit 6-7% by the end of 2008.
Stagflation remains, despite the selloff in commodities.
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TBL has been one of my favorites due to my expectation for an underappreciated improving free cash flow trajectory over the next 12-months with a takeout as a nice call option. As it relates to the latter, TBL makes an ideal takeover candidate by two companies in particular – Nike and VF Corp. I have no edge on who, when, or where. But I certainly can read the tea leaves as to the 'why.'
In addition, Nike has cash burning a hole in its pocket, is seeing ROE decoupling from ROIC because it cannot reinvest capital fast enough back into the business, and probably would not mind strengthening its link with the urban consumer through the Timberland yellow boot business (which I think has bottomed) as its Jordan brand enters maturity.
Nike would want no piece of TBL when TBL still owned its money-losing US retail and apparel businesses, and was overdeploying capital into non-core assets like iPath, Go-Lite and Mion. But with retail closed, GoLite sold, apparel outsourced to PVH, and 5 of the top 6 managers cycled out over 2 years – I think this finally makes the cut for a company like Nike. The biggest negative would be that Nike would inherit a royalty agreement with PVH. Though sub-optimal, I don’t think it’d be a deal killer.
As for VFC, the driver to its business for 3 years has been The North Face, and the company has made it no secret that it is shifting away from basics (underwear biz sold) and towards the Outdoor and higher-end fashion arena. It has also not denied its interest in VFC in the past. If you were to ask me if The North Face is closer to its 1st inning of growth or 9th inning, I’d say we’re in the 7th inning stretch. VFC needs bench growth in Outdoor.
Another major call-out that matters to VFC is that capacity is very tight in Asia right now, and is only getting tighter. While large footwear brands can flex muscle and weather the storm, a smaller footwear company will have a harder time standing on its own. This means M&A makes more sense to gain leverage with factories, as well as to drive back-office synergies through cost cuts.
In addition, as I noted in my earlier post, VFC needs a deal...soon...
1. Weekly ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence came in at -47 this wk vs. -50 last
2. MBA Mortgage applications popped for a +10.5% wk/wk move
The problem, of course, is that these numbers are off of abysmal all time low bases, and these numbers represent one week of data points - this hardly constitutes a "Trend".
That said, my models are data dependent, and I respect that these facts are less than toxic, for once.
Europe didn’t issue their citizens bailout rebate checks like the US Government did...
It is global this time, indeed.
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