TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 4, 2010
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -1.00% downside to 1186 and 0.25% upside to 1201. Equity futures continue to hold above fair value as the positive reaction to yesterday's announcement by the Fed to purchase $600B of longer-term Treasuries over the next eight months encourages risk appetite.
Today's highlight sees weekly jobless numbers and Q3 Nonfarm Productivity….
- Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 3Q EPS beat est, raised 2012 production outlook
- Dendreon (DNDN) forecast 2010 rev. below est.
- MercadoLibre (MELI) 3Q rev. missed est.
- Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) forecast 4Q rev. below est.
- News Corp. (NWSA) 1Q EPS ex. tax benefit beat est., maintained 2011 forecast
- Prudential Financial (PRU) 3Q rev., EPS beat ests.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) forecast 1Q, 2011 EPS, rev. above ests.
- Whole Foods Market (WFMI) raised FY2011 profit outlook
- True Religion Apparel (TRLG) cut its 2010 EPS forecast
- ValueClick (VCLK) forecast 4Q adj. EPS, rev. above ests.
- Zumiez (ZUMZ) 3Q EPS, Oct. comps beat ests.
- One day: Dow +0.24%, S&P +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.27%, Russell 2000 +0.32%
- Month-to-date: Dow +0.87%, S&P +1.24%, Nasdaq +1.31%, Russell +1.68%.
- Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.96%, S&P +4.95%, Nasdaq +7.25%, Russell +5.77%.
- Year-to-date: Dow +7.55%, S&P +7.43%, Nasdaq +11.95%, Russell +14.35%
- Sector Performance: Financials +0.99%, Consumer Disc +0.51%, Tech +0.57%, Consumer Spls +0.31%, Energy +0.21%. Industrials +0.15, Healthcare +0.06%, Materials (0.28%), Utilities (0.19%)
- MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Hartford Financial +9.18%, Marshall & Ilsley 5.50% and Ford +4.92%/Quanta -9.98%, EOG Resources -9.31% and Pulte -7.68%.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 453 (-988)
- VOLUME: NYSE: 1103.41 (+21.61%)
- VIX: 19.56, -9.32% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-9.78%)
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.97 from 1.21 +63.216%
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 17.24, +0.406 (2.412%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13%
- YIELD CURVE: 2.33 from 2.29
- CRB: 305.07 +0.09% - up 8 of the last 9 days
- Oil: 84.69 +0.94% - BULLISH - up 7 of the last 9 days
- COPPER: 378.50 -1.41% - BULLISH
- GOLD: 1,337.15 -1.43% - BULLISH
- EURO: 1.4040 +0.03% - BULLISH
- DOLLAR: 76.481 -0.31%
- European markets saw solid gains from the open buoyed by the US Federal Reserve's decision for an additional $600B of QE and constructive corporate results from European heavy-weight companies.
- A generally weaker US dollar post the Fed's decision saw commodities higher, with mining shares amongst the leading gainers.
- All sectors tradomg higher with banks and food & beverage amongst the leading gainers.
- Market participants await the BOE interest rate decision at 8ET with benchmark interest rate expected to be left unchanged at 0.5%, the focus on any additional QE and ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1% at 8:45ET.
- UK Oct Halifax house price index +1.8% m/m vs con +0.6%
- France Oct final Services PMI 54.8 vs con 55.3
- Germany Oct final Services PMI 56.0 vs con 56.6
- EuroZone Oct final Services PMI at 5ET
- EuroZone Sep PPI due at 6ET
- Asian markets rose today, reacting positively to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing announced yesterday.
- Every sector except pulp and paper rose in Japan, with winning stocks outnumbering losers more than 4-to-1.
- Property developers lifted Hong Kong on bets that interest rates will remain low for some time to come.
- Li & Fung rose 2% on announcing it will become a sourcing agent for Li Ning.
- BHP Billiton led Australia up after Canada blocked its bid for Potash.
- Energy stocks rose as people assumed they might become targets for cash-rich BHP.
- Tech players supported South Korea.