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DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS

Wynn and MGM were the standouts 

 

 

Despite missing the HK$20BN mark, October was another very strong month for Macau.  Total revenues came in at $2.25BN, growing 50% YoY.  VIP revenues grew 57% while Mass grew 31% and slots grew 47% YoY.  VIP still comprises more than 76% of the table revenues.  Direct VIP play was only up 10bps YoY to 7.2%.  Adjusted for direct play, junket hold percentage was 2.7%, similar to last year.  November will have a difficult hold comparison of roughly 3.1%.

 

In terms of winners and losers for the month, MGM took the top spot with 97% total rev growth, increasing its share to 10.7%. Wynn clawed back 150bps of its losses from last month, ending with total market share of 13.8% and revenue growth of 66%.  SJM also increased market share by 2%.

 

Despite 77% YoY growth, MPEL was the largest share donor, losing 2.2%, followed by Galaxy, who lost 180bps of share.  LVS also lost share by having the lowest revenue growth at 19% YoY.

 

 

YoY Table Revenue Observations

 

LVS table revenues increased 17.5% with growth coming from a 13.6% increase in VIP revenues and a 26% increase in Mass revenues.

  • Sands decreased 4.6%
    • VIP revenues declined 11% despite flat Junket RC volume
    • 11% increase in Mass revenues
    • Assuming 14% direct VIP play (same as 2Q & 3Q2010), we estimate that hold for October was 3.1%. However, last October, assuming 9% direct play (inline with 4Q09), hold was even higher at 3.5%.
  • Venetian was up 25%
    • VIP revenues increased 20% despite a 1.6% decrease in Junket RC due to a very easy hold comparison
    • Mass revenues increased 35%
    • Assuming 23% direct VIP play volume, we estimate that hold for October was 3.2% compared to 2.6% last October if we assume that direct play was 17% (in-line with 4Q09 levels).
  • Four Seasons grew 56%
    • Mass revenues grew 25%
    • VIP revenues increased 64% on a 93% increase in Junket VIP RC volume
    • Assuming $750MM of direct VIP play or 43% in October, implied hold is 2.6% compared to 2.3% in October 2009 assuming direct play was 28% (consistent with 4Q09)

Wynn Macau/Encore table revenues were up 70%, driven by an 80% increase in VIP revenues and a 40% increase in Mass revenues

  • Junket RC volume increased 94%. Assuming 13% direct VIP play, October hold would only have been 2.3% even worse than the 2.5% hold experienced in October 2009 (assuming 12% direct play)

MPEL table revenues grew 76% with the growth fueled by a 232% leap in Mass and 35% growth in VIP

  • Altira was up 42%, due to a 15% increase in VIP revenues and a 105% increase in Mass revenues
    • VIP revenue growth was partly driven by very easy YoY hold comparisons, since RC grew only 14%
    • We estimate that hold in October was 2.6% vs. 2.1% in October 2009
  • CoD table revenue increased 106.5% YoY, driven by 93% growth in Mass and 110.5% growth in VIP revenues
    • Mass revenues hit a record $42MM
    • Junket VIP RC increased 68%
    • While hold looks normal in October at 2.8%, assuming 15% direct VIP play, last's October's hold was only 2.2% assuming 18% direct play

SJM table revenues grew 58%

  • Mass was up 18.4% and VIP was up 81.6%
  • Junket RC volumes increased 70%
  • SJM's hold was 2.72%, compared to 2.55% in October 2009.  November will have an difficult hold comparison since last October's hold rate was 3.25%.

Galaxy table revenue only increased 18.5%, driven by a 20% increase in VIP win and a 7% increase in Mass

  • Starworld's table revenue soared 103%, driven by 112% growth in VIP revenues and 30% growth in Mass
  • The Group RC volumes were up 40% while Starworld RC volumes increased 49%.  VIP revenues for the Group and Starworld were negatively impacted by low hold in October.  October hold for the Group and Starworld was 2.5% and 2.44%, respectively, compared to normal hold of 2.9% and 2.8% last year.  November 2009 hold rates were a bit high at 3% for the Group and 3.1% for Starworld.

MGM reported the strongest growth in the month of October, with growth of 97%

  • Mass revenue growth was 67%, while VIP revenues grew 106%
  • VIP RC grew 111%
  • Hold appears to have been normal in October at roughly 2.75%

 

Table Market Share

 

LVS table share dropped 50bps sequentially to 18.6%

  • LVS's share of VIP revenues decreased 50 bps in October, along with a 80 bps decrease in LVS's share of Junket RC to 11.6% - its lowest share since we've been getting data (March 2007)
  • Mass share was flat at 26.3%
  • Sands market share decreased by 80bps due to losses in both Mass and VIP share
  • Venetian gained 130bps to 10.7% sequentially, driven mostly by gains in VIP share which were driven by favorable hold comparisons
  • FS share dropped 100bps to 2.5% due to a 140bps loss in VIP share

WYNN's table share increased 150bps to 13.5%, a little below the TTM average pre-Encore opening market share of 13.8%.

  • Mass market increased 120bps to 11.4%
  • VIP revenue share increased 1.5% to 14.1% sequentially
  • Wynn's VIP share increased to 4th place behind SJM, MPEL, and LVS

Crown's market share fell 2.3% sequentially to 14% in October, driven by a 310bps drop in VIP share

  • CoD's share decreased 30bps
  • Altira's share fell 2%, driven by a 270bps drop in VIP share

SJM's share increased by 2.3% to 33.3%

  • SJM's share gain was driven by a 70bs gain in Mass share and a 3.4% increase in VIP share

Galaxy's share slipped 2% to 10.1%, its lowest share since August 2009

  • The Groups share loss was driven by a 260bps decrease in VIP share and a 50bps decrease in Mass share
  • Starworld's market share decreased 240bps sequentially to 8.1%, due to a 330bps decrease in VIP share
  • Junket RC share only decreased 60bps to 12% for Starworld and decreased 70bps for the Group

MGM's share increased by 100bps to 10.6% - MGM's best share month since August 2009

  • MGM's share gain can be attributed to a 130bps increase in VIP
  • RC share increased 70bps

 

October Slot Revenue Observations

 

Slot revenue grew 47% YoY in October reaching a record $111MM and accounting for 5% of total revenues

  • Galaxy experienced the largest growth of 115% to $4MM
  • MGM's slot revenue increased 102% to $16MM
  • MPEL slot revenue increased 80% to $21MM
  • LVS, having the largest base, grew 37% to $34MM
  • Wynn's slot revenue increased 27% to $22MM
  • SJM's slot revenue had the slowest growth at 16% to $13MM

 

DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS - macau table

 

DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS - macau RC

 

DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS - macau mass


THE FED MEETING - MORE DELUSIONAL COMMENTARY

No matter what happens, all eyes should be on the Dollar following the FED meeting and we covered our short on the Dollar ahead of the meeting. 

 

Before the FED announcement this is what the set up looked liked at 12pm EST:

  1. The Dollar was up +0.10%
  2. Oil was up +1.23%
  3. Euro was down -0.05%
  4. Gold was down -0.23%
  5. Copper was down -0.57%
  6. The S&P 500 was trading flat
  7. Treasury prices are higher
  8. XLB XLY and XLE were trading lower
  9. XLI, XLF and XLU were trading higher

Out of the FED today we get:

  1. The FED intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.
  2. No acknowledgment of inflation - he is as delusional now as he was in 2008 when oil was at $145
  3. Hoenig dissents once again
  4. More confirmation that the US economy is weak

The facts have changed about the effectiveness of the FED program and they have not TIME IS RUNNING OUT.  The Republicans are unlikely to provide any “silver bullet” for the country's serious problems and from an economic perspective the new QE will get us very little bang for a lot of bucks.  The “recovery” is behind us and the current policy will not bring back the consumer spending to the level of the last 30 years.  So what’s the point?  Where is the job creation that is so badly needed and how is QE going to provide jobs?

 

As we can now get back the grind, there three things that matter most in global MACRO today:

  1. Global growth slowing
  2. Inflation accelerating
  3. Interconnected risk compounding

The initial reaction of the dollar to weaken only slightly stock rally the EURO improves and treasuries get hit hard.  All that matter is we are seeing the bottoming process for the Dollar and this is BAD for equities.  As the buck stops burning, our first level of support to the S&P 500 is 1167 or 2% down side from here.

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

THE FED MEETING - MORE DELUSIONAL COMMENTARY - BERNANKE RUNNING OUT OF TIME


WMS: ADDRESSING THE ISSUES

Replacement demand is what it is but WMS margins and gaming ops revenue were both lower than expected.

 

 

WMS has probably “over-earned” on market share the last two quarters and replacement demand has been sluggish.  Outside of replacement demand accelerating, we’re not exactly sure what the next positive catalyst will be, but we would like to address a couple of concerns that emerged from the FQ1:  Gaming Ops revenues and Gaming Equipment margins.

 

Gaming operations were clearly a little disappointing in the quarter and the change in the presentation makes things even more confusing to draw insight

  • They missed our revenue number here by $3MM and gross margin by $2MM
  • The difference vs our number was driven by both a lower install base and average win per day
  • There were no new WAP games launched in the Q and Lord of the Rings generates a fee close to the participation average so that explains the slightly lower yields
  • Gaming Ops margins were good and should continue to benefit from Lord of the Rings, paying like a WAP game without the associated jackpot expense – assuming base grows
  • Under the old method, sequentially, we think that standalone units would have increased by ~100 units, LAPs would have been flat, and WAPs would have decreased by 175 units
  • In the next few quarters, they have several WAP games coming,  a new LAP (Godfather), and several standalones.  The December and March quarters will be very active from a release standpoint and should generate increases across the board in the install base

The margin issue… disappointing but we believe it is temporary

  • Lower xD margins and a higher mix of used/parts revenues meant margins were 3.6% lower than we estimated so gross margin was only $1.2MM better than our number
  • We shouldn’t really ding them for lower xD margins because that’s a temporary issue that will resolve itself by the YE
  •  xD was a much higher % of the mix than they estimated - this was partly magnified by the fact that there were many units shipped in the quarter and that xD just launched.  For the rest of the year, the mix will be less than 35%, aside from perhaps the very end of the year.  
  • While Bluebird (BB) margins were the same, there were less total units, so fixed costs were spread over a smaller base, further impacting margins
  • Used games and parts have much lower margins than conversion kits (which are around 90+%) so the mix of non-gaming dampened margins.  It seems like used games and parts should continue to be strong this year as they are getting lots of trade-ins of BB1’s for BB2’s – which isn’t a bad thing – but this is a lower margin income stream and it almost doubled YoY.

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SENTIMENT WATCH - MAXIMUM BULLISHNESS IS BAD

Conclusion: Sentiment is at maximum levels.  This is another indicator to watch carefully as this market continues to echo the mania of 2007.

 

With much of Wall Street focused on the election and upcoming Federal Reserve Policy Announcement, it is interesting to look at the sentiment that has bolstered this recent stock market rally.  Clearly it is not news that sentiment is high among investors but the chart below paints an alarming picture of just rose-tinted the Street’s glasses are.  As LBO rumors and guesstimates of how sizeable QE2 might be have driven the market, the underlying economic climate has remained fragile.  The clear and lucid picture of GDP growth propped up by government spending and inventory build is a stark reminder not to follow the herd.  I discussed this point in greater detail in the Early Look yesterday, titled, “VERSIONS OF THE TRUTH”.

 

Looking past the Federal Reserve announcement today, the next ball to catch is the Retail Sales numbers that are due to be released tomorrow.  Eric Levine, Director of Retail at Hedgeye, had the following insights ahead of tomorrow’s releases.  The question is, does the market – and the elevated level of bullishness – bake in the significant downside risk suggested by the commentary below.  As Eric told me, the preponderance of the commentary around the building products companies of late suggests slowing within 3Q.

 

Levine:

  • With cold weather comparisons at their toughest for the month of October, we believe solid Halloween sell-throughs will be mitigated by weak overall demand for seasonal apparel.
  • With the next major catalyst being Christmas (kicked off by Black Friday), it’s unlikely that any tangible improvement in sales momentum materializes over the next few weeks.  We fully anticipate that holiday sales will materialize, although in a manner in which it will be difficult to guage in real time.  Recall that holiday sales generally occur later and later each year as well as even after 12/25. 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

SENTIMENT WATCH - MAXIMUM BULLISHNESS IS BAD - bullbear


ASCA 3Q2010 CONF CALL NOTES

ASCA 3Q2010 CONF CALL NOTES

 

 

"We believe the signs of stabilization that were evident at most of our properties in the third quarter will continue into the 2010 fourth quarter. Year-over-year quarterly variances are expected to narrow at our Black Hawk and East Chicago properties. The positive impact from the Black Hawk hotel will be fully included in the final quarters of 2010 and 2009. During the fourth quarter, we will also lap the November 2009 East Chicago bridge closure and its adverse impact on that property's financial results... Also, our St. Charles property appears to have stabilized in all key financial metrics, as well as admissions and market share, since the opening of a new competitor in March 2010... We are optimistic the combination of solid net revenues and consistently strong margins should continue to produce efficient revenue flow-through."

--Gordon Kanofsky, CEO of Ameristar


HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • Impact of East Chicago bridge closure: $4.6MM of revenue and $2.5MM of EBITDA
  • Promotional allowances rose 15.6% due to Black Hawk hotel and marketing post-bridge closure at East Chicago.
  • "The declines in operating income, Adjusted EBITDA and the related margin are primarily attributable to lower table games hold percentages at our Vicksburg and Missouri properties. We believe that table hold variances accounted for approximately $2.8 million of the decline in Adjusted EBITDA and a drop of 0.9 percentage point in Adjusted EBITDA margin compared to the prior-year third quarter."
  • Debt: $1.57BN; intends to repay all 2010 debt with cash from ops and revolver
  • Total leverage ratio: 4.81x (covenant: 6x)
  • Senior leverage ratio: 4.81x (covenant: 6x)
  • Interest expense: $28.1 MM
  • Capitalized interest: $0.2MM
  • Capex: $14.1 MM, down from $33.3 in 3Q 2009
  • Dividend: $0.105 per share
  • FY 2010 guidance
    • depreciation: $108.2-$109.2 MM
    • interest expense, net: $122.5- $123.5 MM (includes non-cash interest expense of $11MM)
    • Combined state and federal tax rate: 43.5%-44.5%
    • Capex: $65-$70MM
    • Capitalized interest: $0.6 MM-$0.7 MM
    • Non-cash stock comp: $13.8 MM-$14.3 MM

CONF CALL NOTES

  • First time in 2 years that they didn't see net revenues decline
  • Optimistic that most markets have bottomed out and that they will start seeing some increases
  • Market share in Blackhawk reached a record of 27.8% and they grew 9% YoY despite the market declining 2.4%
  • 3Q is probably a good indicator of what East Chicago can generate going forward
  • Cape Girdardeau got strong local support. They are going to make a decision on whether and where to issue a license by year end.

Q&A

  • How was October? Don't usually comment but October results have continued along the trends they have been experiencing.  There are 5 weekends in October.
  • Adding 106 rooms at Kansas City and making some renovations. Will use their FCF to reduce debt.  Hopefully when topline grows, the flow-through will be strong.
  • Will look at new opportunities and whether to pursue them depends on whether they are better on debt reduction and projects at existing properties
  • Why the huge growth in F&B revenues?
    • They had to respond when competition ramped up promotions. It ended up benefiting their slot margins (increased play)
  • Market shrare is 43.5% of Vicksburg market
  • 2011 Capex plan?
    • Roughly the same as 2010 - give or take $5MM
    • Will start additional rooms in Kansas City but it won't be complete
    • Room rehab in East Chicago
    • For the most part, it will be maintenance related
    • No change on slot replacement/ conversions
  • Can adjust to business levels without significant staffing increases. Should see extremely high flow-through from net revenue increases
  • Extending R/C is L+ 375bps piece
  • Capex this quarter? Almost all maintenance
  • There will be some payment in the quarter to finish off Blackhawk

R3: LVMH, KCP, SHOO, H&M

R3: REQUIRED RETAIL READING

November 3, 2010

 

 

 

RESEARCH ANECDOTES 

  • In a positive sign that spending may indeed be picking up on the west coast, Big Five noted that comps increased in each month during Q3 driven by an increase in customer traffic while average ticket declined modestly. So far in 4Q, the positive momentum has continued with comps up LSD despite tougher year-over-year compares.
  • Steven Madden confirmed that while boots started selling earlier this year than last, the category continues to be robust again in 2010. In addition, the company is also seeing a shift into booties as well with a lace-up style one of the brands hottest selling SKUs currently. 
  • H&M’s new lookbook for the highly anticipated Lanvin collaboration is now available. The new line to be launched on November 23rd is priced under $200 including accessories and shoes and will include a menswear component as well. If the company’s collaboration with Jimmy Choo last year is any indication, the Lanvin line will likely provide a much needed boost to the fast-fashion retailer.

OUR TAKE ON OVERNIGHT NEWS

 

LVMH Pursuit of Hermes Heats Up - In their most explicit statement since LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton announced its stealth purchase of 17.1 percent of Hermès shares, the company’s bosses hit back in a newspaper interview in which they called for luxury mogul Bernard Arnault to get rid of his stake. Patrick Thomas, chief executive officer of Hermès International, and Bertrand Puech, executive chairman of Emile Hermès SARL, which represents the family shareholders, told French daily Le Figaro they did not consider the move by the LVMH chairman and ceo as “friendly” despite his assurances that he does not plan a hostile takeover. “The family is saying clearly and unanimously: ‘If you want to be friendly, Monsieur Arnault, then you must withdraw’,” Puech was quoted as saying by the paper. He added that he reacted with “surprise and displeasure” when Arnault phoned to notify him of the stake, just hours before issuing a statement. Thomas and Puech said they met with Arnault last week and told him face-to-face they did not consider his overture friendly. “There is nothing friendly about this move. It was neither desired nor solicited,” said Thomas, adding: “It is very probable that he will increase his stake, I don’t know his intentions.” <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  History suggest that the involvement of Bernard Arnault is very rarely a “friendly” gesture.  This is heading towards soap opera status. 

 

KCP Reclaiming Women's Sportswear License - Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. is taking control of its Kenneth Cole New York women’s sportswear license. The New York-based firm said Monday it will terminate the category’s 5-year-old license agreement with Bernard Chaus Inc., effective June 1, 2011. The license was originally scheduled to expire in June 2012. Total wholesale revenue from the line, which is distributed in more than 400 doors nationwide including Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, Dillard’s and Lord & Taylor, is estimated to be in excess of $50 million annually, according to a company statement. Jill Granoff, CEO of Kenneth Cole Productions, said that bringing the line in-house will help build the company’s women’s business going forward. “We intend to invest the resources required to realize the growth potential we believe exists in the wholesale, retail and international channels,” said Granoff. <FootwearNews>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  While Chaus may not have been the right partner, it’s still not clear how successful KCP will be while bearing the entire cost of production from design to distribution.  The brand needs help and women’s sportswear isn’t the answer.

 

Twitter CEO on Retail - Whether it’s Facebook, Twitter or another social networking platform, apparel and retail brands are taking money from their traditional ad spend and placing it with these Web tools to reach new consumers. On the Internet, it’s all about avoiding ad lingo and keeping the message “organic and viral.” “Where you can, be less formal,” advised Twitter chief executive officer Dick Costolo. He pointed to the Dolce & Gabbana Twitter feed and compared it to Stefano Gabbana’s personal account as a good example. The official Twitter page for Dolce & Gabbana, which has almost 40,000 followers and features a picture of Madonna, has several kinds of tweets, such as party pictures, behind-the-scenes photos from a fashion shoot and friends of the brand, such as Naomi Campbell. Costolo spoke to fashion brands on how to use Twitter to further monetize their brands, but the number-one question for Costolo following his presentation was how Twitter plans to do the same thing. “It’s a fairly easy proposition,” he noted. “Promoted tweets are often retweeted more often than organic tweets. We have an ad platform where people are incredibly engaged and we are going to expand it.” But if a company wants to pay for a “promoted tweet,” it has to be something that has already been tweeted from the account. In other words, it cannot be written expressly as an advertisement. And, like Google, Twitter will experiment more with providing key words to advertisers so they will appear at the top of any search list. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  While Twitter itself is looking to monetize and commercialize its advertising properties, it appears the retailers (at least so far) have done a fairly good job promoting their brands for free.  After all, with a bunch of “followers” already  it costs absolutely nothing for a retailer to Tweet a promo or a new product launch.  Good for everyone but Twitter. 

 

Retailers Pursue Mobile Aggressively - The increasingly social, mobile nature of the Internet is reducing the space between retailers and their customers and forcing merchants’ hands when it comes to investing in new technologies. That was one of the common denominators among speakers on an e-commerce panel. Participants were Janet Carr, senior vice president of strategy and customer engagement for Coach Inc., Denise Incandela, president of Saks Inc.’s Saks Direct unit, and Carl Sparks, president of Gilt Groupe. Edmond Jay, senior vice president of American Express Co.’s Business Insights division, moderated. Incandela led off by defining four areas that are receiving more attention at Saks’ e-commerce unit — improving the customer shopping experience, adjusting to the global nature of the business, adapting to mobile technologies and integrating social networking into operations. Getting e-commerce right is crucial, she noted, because the multichannel customer spends three to four times more than the single-channel customer, and also spends more time in stores. Salespeople get commission for Web purchases they facilitate, and all stores have access to merchandise that’s on the Web. A database has been assembled that incorporates customer information from all channels used by Saks, and the retailer is working on integrating its inventory so that all channels have access to it. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  This is getting old.  At the end of the day the consumer wants its mobile experience to mimic its online experience and its retail store experience.  Very simple.   

 

Men Mobile Mavens - The model of the young male early adopter seems to have fallen by the wayside with the rise of digital phenomena like social media, but according to research from Adobe Systems Inc., men were ahead in mobile. In a few content activities, women led. They were 10 percentage points more likely than men to access social media via mobile, and about equal when it came to searching for local information, reading or posting to blogs, and playing games. But men’s hunger for content put them ahead in more than just sports; video, music and news were all primarily male-conducted activities. Men weren’t just using more content—they were more willing to pay for it too. Adobe found that men were more likely than women to purchase every category of mobile media and entertainment content studied, including games, video, news and, of course, sports content. Overall, 53% of women said they had never paid for mobile entertainment content, compared with just 38% of men. Mobile-commerce is also a male-dominated area. Women held their own in categories like clothing, shoes and jewelry—as well as toys, babies and kids—but men were never far behind and in many areas dramatically outpaced women’s purchase habits. <emarketer>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Great opportunity for the marriage of social media and retailing given the high overlap of female participation in both activities.

 

R3: LVMH, KCP, SHOO, H&M - R3 11 3 10

 

R3: LVMH, KCP, SHOO, H&M - R3 2 11 3 10

 

Vietnam Retail Sales Up - Vietnam’s total retail sales and service revenue is estimated to have accelerated 25.1% on-year to VND1282 trillion in the first ten months of this year, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam(GSO). The service revenue contributed VND116.9 trillion, up 22.3% on year in October. The trade sector reported an on-year revenue increase of 25.8% to VND1010.9 trillion compared with VND905.149 trillion in September, equivalent to 79% of the country’s sum during the nine-month period. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has forecast retail sales and service revenue in the world’s 13th populous country with 86.5 million people will soar 22% from a year earlier to $78.9 billion this year. <fashionnetasia>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: With the trend of manufacturing demand shifting increasingly towards Vietnam for much of 2010, we view this rapid acceleration in the country’s venues likely to continue over the intermediate-term at a minimum. As a point of reference, at its recent analyst day, PSS noted that they expect to shift from 85% of production out of China to 70%-75% over the next 2-years of which Vietnam will be a primary beneficiary.

 

U.S. Customer Becoming Less Attractive on Relative Basis - Chinese footwear firms are shifting their focus from developed countries to emerging markets like the Middle East and ASEAN countries to reduce the burden of anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU and America, revealed by a research report conducted by RNCOS. Export to the Middle East countries has significantly increased over the previous year. Due to the establishment of China-ASEAN free trade zone, a huge growth has been seen in exports to the ASEAN countries, said RNCOS. Chinese footwear industry has witnessed robust growth both in terms of consumption and exports. The research has found that the footwear industry will recover from the 2009 downturn in near future. Liberalization and globalization have given required impetus to the Chinese footwear sector thus, enabling it to become the largest footwear producing country. According to the report, the Chinese footwear retail market can be subdivided into four sectors: Leather shoes, Rubber shoes, Cloth (textile) shoes, and Plastic shoes. As a whole, demand for rubber shoes is rising due to gradual diversification in functions and designs as well as constant improvement in comfort. The domestic sales of footwear in China have significantly risen on the back of rising online sales and increasing brand awareness. Chinese have shown great interest in the branded shoes after the entrance of many global brands that employ various promotional methods to popularize their products. <fashionnetasia>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Since 2009, China exports to ASEAN countries have doubled in terms of growth at the same time the domestic market demand is ramping rapidly. With manufactures also now starting to balk on orders in USD due to Fx risk, it doesn’t look likely that the cost of procurement is going to be easing in the near-term.

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.63%
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