DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS

Wynn and MGM were the standouts 

 

 

Despite missing the HK$20BN mark, October was another very strong month for Macau.  Total revenues came in at $2.25BN, growing 50% YoY.  VIP revenues grew 57% while Mass grew 31% and slots grew 47% YoY.  VIP still comprises more than 76% of the table revenues.  Direct VIP play was only up 10bps YoY to 7.2%.  Adjusted for direct play, junket hold percentage was 2.7%, similar to last year.  November will have a difficult hold comparison of roughly 3.1%.

 

In terms of winners and losers for the month, MGM took the top spot with 97% total rev growth, increasing its share to 10.7%. Wynn clawed back 150bps of its losses from last month, ending with total market share of 13.8% and revenue growth of 66%.  SJM also increased market share by 2%.

 

Despite 77% YoY growth, MPEL was the largest share donor, losing 2.2%, followed by Galaxy, who lost 180bps of share.  LVS also lost share by having the lowest revenue growth at 19% YoY.

 

 

YoY Table Revenue Observations

 

LVS table revenues increased 17.5% with growth coming from a 13.6% increase in VIP revenues and a 26% increase in Mass revenues.

  • Sands decreased 4.6%
    • VIP revenues declined 11% despite flat Junket RC volume
    • 11% increase in Mass revenues
    • Assuming 14% direct VIP play (same as 2Q & 3Q2010), we estimate that hold for October was 3.1%. However, last October, assuming 9% direct play (inline with 4Q09), hold was even higher at 3.5%.
  • Venetian was up 25%
    • VIP revenues increased 20% despite a 1.6% decrease in Junket RC due to a very easy hold comparison
    • Mass revenues increased 35%
    • Assuming 23% direct VIP play volume, we estimate that hold for October was 3.2% compared to 2.6% last October if we assume that direct play was 17% (in-line with 4Q09 levels).
  • Four Seasons grew 56%
    • Mass revenues grew 25%
    • VIP revenues increased 64% on a 93% increase in Junket VIP RC volume
    • Assuming $750MM of direct VIP play or 43% in October, implied hold is 2.6% compared to 2.3% in October 2009 assuming direct play was 28% (consistent with 4Q09)

Wynn Macau/Encore table revenues were up 70%, driven by an 80% increase in VIP revenues and a 40% increase in Mass revenues

  • Junket RC volume increased 94%. Assuming 13% direct VIP play, October hold would only have been 2.3% even worse than the 2.5% hold experienced in October 2009 (assuming 12% direct play)

MPEL table revenues grew 76% with the growth fueled by a 232% leap in Mass and 35% growth in VIP

  • Altira was up 42%, due to a 15% increase in VIP revenues and a 105% increase in Mass revenues
    • VIP revenue growth was partly driven by very easy YoY hold comparisons, since RC grew only 14%
    • We estimate that hold in October was 2.6% vs. 2.1% in October 2009
  • CoD table revenue increased 106.5% YoY, driven by 93% growth in Mass and 110.5% growth in VIP revenues
    • Mass revenues hit a record $42MM
    • Junket VIP RC increased 68%
    • While hold looks normal in October at 2.8%, assuming 15% direct VIP play, last's October's hold was only 2.2% assuming 18% direct play

SJM table revenues grew 58%

  • Mass was up 18.4% and VIP was up 81.6%
  • Junket RC volumes increased 70%
  • SJM's hold was 2.72%, compared to 2.55% in October 2009.  November will have an difficult hold comparison since last October's hold rate was 3.25%.

Galaxy table revenue only increased 18.5%, driven by a 20% increase in VIP win and a 7% increase in Mass

  • Starworld's table revenue soared 103%, driven by 112% growth in VIP revenues and 30% growth in Mass
  • The Group RC volumes were up 40% while Starworld RC volumes increased 49%.  VIP revenues for the Group and Starworld were negatively impacted by low hold in October.  October hold for the Group and Starworld was 2.5% and 2.44%, respectively, compared to normal hold of 2.9% and 2.8% last year.  November 2009 hold rates were a bit high at 3% for the Group and 3.1% for Starworld.

MGM reported the strongest growth in the month of October, with growth of 97%

  • Mass revenue growth was 67%, while VIP revenues grew 106%
  • VIP RC grew 111%
  • Hold appears to have been normal in October at roughly 2.75%

 

Table Market Share

 

LVS table share dropped 50bps sequentially to 18.6%

  • LVS's share of VIP revenues decreased 50 bps in October, along with a 80 bps decrease in LVS's share of Junket RC to 11.6% - its lowest share since we've been getting data (March 2007)
  • Mass share was flat at 26.3%
  • Sands market share decreased by 80bps due to losses in both Mass and VIP share
  • Venetian gained 130bps to 10.7% sequentially, driven mostly by gains in VIP share which were driven by favorable hold comparisons
  • FS share dropped 100bps to 2.5% due to a 140bps loss in VIP share

WYNN's table share increased 150bps to 13.5%, a little below the TTM average pre-Encore opening market share of 13.8%.

  • Mass market increased 120bps to 11.4%
  • VIP revenue share increased 1.5% to 14.1% sequentially
  • Wynn's VIP share increased to 4th place behind SJM, MPEL, and LVS

Crown's market share fell 2.3% sequentially to 14% in October, driven by a 310bps drop in VIP share

  • CoD's share decreased 30bps
  • Altira's share fell 2%, driven by a 270bps drop in VIP share

SJM's share increased by 2.3% to 33.3%

  • SJM's share gain was driven by a 70bs gain in Mass share and a 3.4% increase in VIP share

Galaxy's share slipped 2% to 10.1%, its lowest share since August 2009

  • The Groups share loss was driven by a 260bps decrease in VIP share and a 50bps decrease in Mass share
  • Starworld's market share decreased 240bps sequentially to 8.1%, due to a 330bps decrease in VIP share
  • Junket RC share only decreased 60bps to 12% for Starworld and decreased 70bps for the Group

MGM's share increased by 100bps to 10.6% - MGM's best share month since August 2009

  • MGM's share gain can be attributed to a 130bps increase in VIP
  • RC share increased 70bps

 

October Slot Revenue Observations

 

Slot revenue grew 47% YoY in October reaching a record $111MM and accounting for 5% of total revenues

  • Galaxy experienced the largest growth of 115% to $4MM
  • MGM's slot revenue increased 102% to $16MM
  • MPEL slot revenue increased 80% to $21MM
  • LVS, having the largest base, grew 37% to $34MM
  • Wynn's slot revenue increased 27% to $22MM
  • SJM's slot revenue had the slowest growth at 16% to $13MM

 

DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS - macau table

 

DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS - macau RC

 

DEEP DIVE INTO MACAU'S OCTOBER NUMBERS - macau mass