THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 3, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 11 points or -0.80% downside to 1184 and 0.12% upside to 1195.  Equity futures are positive following a mixed opening as investors digest Tuesday's mid-term election results.

Today is the long awaited FOMC meeting, and expectations for QE2, which most now expect will reveal a further $500B in asset purchases over the next 6 months.

But first, there is the ADP employment report plus ISM Non Manufacturing index and Factory Orders.

  • Alaska Air Group (ALK) Oct. traffic rose 15.9% percent and capacity rose 9.1%
  • Approach Resources (AREX) 3Q EPS beat est., rev. missed *Citigroup (C) may sell ~$570m of stakes in CVC funds, 2 people with direct knowledge of the matter tell Bloomberg
  • OpenTable (OPEN) 3Q adj. EPS beat est.
  • Seahawk Drilling (HAWK) says it’s reviewing strategic alternatives, including sale, merger, recapitalization 
  • Sonus Networks (SONS US) 3Q rev. missed est., loss-shr matched est.

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.58%, S&P +0.78%, Nasdaq +1.14%, Russell 2000 +2.05%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.63%, S&P +0.87%, Nasdaq +1.04%, Russell +1.37%.
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.71%, S&P +4.59%, Nasdaq +6.96%, Russell +5.43%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +7.29%, S&P +7.04%, Nasdaq +11.65%, Russell +13.99%
  • Sector Performance: Utilities +1.18%, Energy +1.10%, Consumer Disc +1.14%, Tech +0.98%, Materials +1.04%, Industrials +0.96%, Healthcare +0.96%. Consumer Spls +0.59% and Financials +0.24%
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Harman Intl +12.25%, Medco Health +10.75% and Vulcan Materials +8.54%/ADM -6.59%, Carefusion -5.61% and Marathon Oil -5.30%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1441 (+1295)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 907.36 (-5.44%)
  • VIX: 21.57 -1.19% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+0.51%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.21 from 2.57 -53.06%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.53, -0.812 (-4.681%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13%    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.29 from 2.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 304.98 +1.14% - up 7 of the last 8 days
  • Oil: 83.90 +1.15% - BULLISH  - up 6 of the last 8 days
  • COPPER: 383.90 +1.43% - BULLISH - up 6 of the last 8 days
  • GOLD: 1,356.60 +0.29% - BULLISH - up 5 of the last 8 days

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4036 +0.97% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 76.722 -0.74%  - BASING

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: +0.14%; DAX +0.23%; CAC 40 +0.46%
  • Major indices have edged into positive territory led by Banks, Construction and Auto plays.
  • BMW Group Q3 net €874M vs Rtrs €832M, Confirms 2012 targets
  • Societe Generale  Q3 net €896M vs Rtrs €667.5M
  • UK Oct Services PMI +53.2 vs cons +52.5

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei closed, Hang Seng +2.00%; Shanghai Composite (0.47%)
  • Most Asian markets rose, in anticipation of monetary easing from the US later today.
  • Banks led a surge in Hong Kong after Goldman Sachs upgraded the Heng Seng on increased liquidity from QE2.
  • Tokyo was closed for culture day.
  • Australia rose, but banks gave up their early highs in light of a political storm over their profits
  • Australia Sep dwelling approvals (3.7%) m/m vs survey +1.0% 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER