Election Day . . . Some Early Looks From The Ground

We’ve sourced some of our political contacts around the country and want to offer some early views of what we are hearing from the ground: 

  • Fond Du Lac, Wisconsin – “City of Fond du Lac Clerk Sue Strands said there’s been a steady stream of voters at the polls since they opened at 7 a.m. Strands had predicted a 63 percent turnout.” 
  • Cincinnati, Ohio – “An Enquirer analysis of early returns in Southwest Ohio shows that 43 percent of ballots mailed in were requested by Republicans, and 30 percent by Democrats. The rest were from independents or third party voters.” 
  • Portland and Bangor, Maine – “City officials in Portland and Bangor said the turnout as of midmorning was light. In Lewiston, an election official described the early turnout as steady.” 
  • St. Louis, Missouri – “It's a very heavy turnout," said Rich Chrismer, director of elections in St. Charles County, who predicted 65 to 70 percent of registered voters in the county will vote.” 
  • North Carolina – “State Board of Elections director Gary Bartlett says the two words he's been hearing from county officials so far are "steady" and "moderate." 

While it is difficult to read too much into these comments, it does appear broadly speaking that turnout will be more than the typical midterm election.  Interestingly, we have been watching the Intrade electoral markets this afternoon as well and would highlight a number of points there: 

  • The contract for the Democrats to control  the Senate has rallied well off its lows and is now registering 47.0, while the contract for the Republicans to hold 50 seats in the Senate is also rallying and is now at 38.0. 
  • The contract for Patty Murray (D) retaining her seat in Washington state is now at its highs of 69.2, which is likely leading to the increase in the Democrats chances of holding the Senate. 
  • The contract for the Republicans to gain a net 60 seats in the House is now 59.9, which is slightly off its highs of ~63, but still largely in positive territory for the Republicans.

More importantly: whatever your affiliation . . . get out there and vote! 

Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director