THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 2, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.54% downside to 1178 and 0.22% upside to 1187.  The futures are higher as the Republicans are poised to retake the House and narrow Democrats’ margin in the Senate. 

Earnings today are reported by companies including Emerson Electric, Pfizer, MasterCard and Kellogg.

  • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 3Q adj. EPS missed est. 
  • Cognex (CGNXS) sees 4Q rev. above est.
  • Corporate Executive Board (EXBD) 3Q adj. EPS beat est.; raised  full-year forecast
  • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD), Forest Laboratories (FRX) companies reported positive results from Phase III trial of linaclotide 
  • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 3Q adj. EPS, rev. missed ests, suspended 4Q forecast
  • NutriSystem (NTRI) raised 2010 EPS forecast 
  • RightNow Technologies (RNOW) raised year sales, profit forecast *Rogers (ROG US) 3Q EPS missed est.

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.06%, S&P +0.09%, Nasdaq (0.10%), Russell (0.68%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.06%, S&P +0.09%, Nasdaq (0.1%), Russell (0.68%)
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.12%, S&P +3.78%, Nasdaq +5.75%, Russell +3.32%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.68%, S&P +6.21%, Nasdaq +10.39%, Russell +11.7%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.12%, Technology +0.08, Financial, +0.01, Industrials 0.00%, Healthcare 0.00%, Materials (0.06%), Consumer Discretionary (0.20%), Consumer Staples (0.42%), and Utilities (0.98%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Baker Hughes +4.40%, Cabot Oil & Gas +4.07% and M&T Bank +3.64%/First Horizon -6.74%, Marshall & Ilsley -4.57% and Avon -4.56%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 146 (-428)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 959.57 (-7.39%)
  • VIX: 21.83 +2.97% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+0.69%) - THE VIX IS UP FOR THE LAST 6 DAYS
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.57 from 3.37 -23.66%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.73 -1.725 (-9.347%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13% +0.01%    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.32 from 2.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 301.53 +0.29%
  • Oil: 82.95 +1.87% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 378.50 +1.38% - BULLISH
  • GOLD: 1,352.68 -0.37% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3901 -0.33% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.296 +0.04%  - BASING

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: +0.90%; DAX: +0.44%; CAC 40: +0.30%
  • European markets are trading higher, having quickly reversed slight opening falls that saw CAC down (0.3%) and FTSE100, DAX (0.1%).
  • Continuing M&A activity and generally well received results from European heavy-weights, particularly in the UK, was countered by caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday and additional capital raisings announcements by banks.
  • Advancing sectors lead decliners 5-4, with banks and utilities amongst the leading fallers, travel & leisure and personal & household products the leading gainers.
  • France Oct final Manufacturing PMI 55.2 vs preliminary 55.2
  • Germany Oct final Manufacturing PMI 56.6 vs preliminary 56.1
  • EuroZone Oct final Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs preliminary 54.1

Asian markets: 

  • Nikkei +0.06%; Hang Seng +0.1%; Shanghai Composite (0.28%)
  • Asian markets traded in a tight band today, with many investors choosing to stay out of action ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
  •  A surprise decision to raise interest rates in Australia pushed regional markets down in the early afternoon, though most recovered before closing. Australia raises cash rate 25bp to 4.75%.
  • India raised interest rates for a sixth time this year, hiking the Repo Rate and the Reverse Repo Rate by 25bps each.
  • China ended down slightly, as investors sold financials and carmakers. 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER