THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 2, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.54% downside to 1178 and 0.22% upside to 1187.  The futures are higher as the Republicans are poised to retake the House and narrow Democrats’ margin in the Senate. 

 

Earnings today are reported by companies including Emerson Electric, Pfizer, MasterCard and Kellogg.

  • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 3Q adj. EPS missed est. 
  • Cognex (CGNXS) sees 4Q rev. above est.
  • Corporate Executive Board (EXBD) 3Q adj. EPS beat est.; raised  full-year forecast
  • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD), Forest Laboratories (FRX) companies reported positive results from Phase III trial of linaclotide 
  • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 3Q adj. EPS, rev. missed ests, suspended 4Q forecast
  • NutriSystem (NTRI) raised 2010 EPS forecast 
  • RightNow Technologies (RNOW) raised year sales, profit forecast *Rogers (ROG US) 3Q EPS missed est.

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.06%, S&P +0.09%, Nasdaq (0.10%), Russell (0.68%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.06%, S&P +0.09%, Nasdaq (0.1%), Russell (0.68%)
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.12%, S&P +3.78%, Nasdaq +5.75%, Russell +3.32%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.68%, S&P +6.21%, Nasdaq +10.39%, Russell +11.7%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.12%, Technology +0.08, Financial, +0.01, Industrials 0.00%, Healthcare 0.00%, Materials (0.06%), Consumer Discretionary (0.20%), Consumer Staples (0.42%), and Utilities (0.98%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Baker Hughes +4.40%, Cabot Oil & Gas +4.07% and M&T Bank +3.64%/First Horizon -6.74%, Marshall & Ilsley -4.57% and Avon -4.56%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 146 (-428)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 959.57 (-7.39%)
  • VIX: 21.83 +2.97% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+0.69%) - THE VIX IS UP FOR THE LAST 6 DAYS
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.57 from 3.37 -23.66%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.73 -1.725 (-9.347%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13% +0.01%    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.32 from 2.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 301.53 +0.29%
  • Oil: 82.95 +1.87% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 378.50 +1.38% - BULLISH
  • GOLD: 1,352.68 -0.37% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3901 -0.33% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.296 +0.04%  - BASING

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: +0.90%; DAX: +0.44%; CAC 40: +0.30%
  • European markets are trading higher, having quickly reversed slight opening falls that saw CAC down (0.3%) and FTSE100, DAX (0.1%).
  • Continuing M&A activity and generally well received results from European heavy-weights, particularly in the UK, was countered by caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday and additional capital raisings announcements by banks.
  • Advancing sectors lead decliners 5-4, with banks and utilities amongst the leading fallers, travel & leisure and personal & household products the leading gainers.
  • France Oct final Manufacturing PMI 55.2 vs preliminary 55.2
  • Germany Oct final Manufacturing PMI 56.6 vs preliminary 56.1
  • EuroZone Oct final Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs preliminary 54.1

Asian markets: 

  • Nikkei +0.06%; Hang Seng +0.1%; Shanghai Composite (0.28%)
  • Asian markets traded in a tight band today, with many investors choosing to stay out of action ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
  •  A surprise decision to raise interest rates in Australia pushed regional markets down in the early afternoon, though most recovered before closing. Australia raises cash rate 25bp to 4.75%.
  • India raised interest rates for a sixth time this year, hiking the Repo Rate and the Reverse Repo Rate by 25bps each.
  • China ended down slightly, as investors sold financials and carmakers. 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more