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According to a new YouGov poll, the majority of Trump voters are deeply unhappy with democracy. They’re also more likely than other groups to be pessimistic about where democracy is headed in the future. (The Washington Post) |
NH: The author of this op-ed, Philip Bump, interprets these poll results as a dark omen for the future of democracy.
Republicans are deeply discontent: 74% of them are not satisfied with how U.S. democracy is working, and 49% are not optimistic about the future of democracy.
What’s more, 19% of Republicans at least somewhat disagree that democracy is the best form of government. All of these figures are even higher among Trump voters, but considerably lower among Democrats and Biden voters.
Bump connects these findings to the GOP’s widespread efforts to pass voting restrictions in various states--apparently because they're giving up on democracy.
This interpretation is fundamentally misguided. Bump is correct that Americans are unhappy with democracy.
But it’s not limited to Republicans and Trump voters. As is the case now with issues ranging from Covid-19 to the economy (see “Americans Eager for Major Political Reforms” and “If You Love Trump, You Think the Economy is Strong. If Not, Not.”), how voters feel depends on who’s in power.
When YouGov asked the same questions in 2018, 74% of Democrats said they were unhappy with how democracy was working. 9% disagreed that democracy was the best form of government, while an additional 12% said they weren’t sure.
And while Democrats are more optimistic about democracy today, they’re hardly jumping for joy. The majority (51%) are still unhappy about how it’s working.
Two massive studies by the Cambridge University Centre for the Future of Democracy show that declining confidence in democracy is a secular trend encompassing nearly all high-income countries across the entire political spectrum.
And it is driven, at least in part, by lower confidence among those who are born later. At any given age, in other words, confidence is declining by birth cohort. (See “Global Millennials: Down on Democracy and Drawn to Populism.”)
Across the electoral cycle, multiple surveys have shown that Millennials are the least attached to democracy, the most enthusiastic about populist leaders both on the left and the right, and the fastest to abandon moderate technocrats once they are elected. (See "Are Millennials Giving Up on Democracy?") This dissatisfaction is deepening as they grow older.
So yes, Bump is right: Democracy is in trouble. But its biggest long-term threat isn't unhappy (and mostly older) Trump voters. It’s unhappy younger voters.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
