• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 29, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or -1.25% downside to 1169 and 0.69% upside to 1192.  Equity futures are trading below fair value after a mixed finish on Thursday as the build up to next week's pivotal FOMC meeting continues to sap momentum.

Today politized 3Q GDP is posted with Bloomberg forecasting a +2.0% rise q/q vs prior +1.7%. Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment are also due for release.

  • Coinstar (CSTR) forecast 2011 EPS above ests
  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) raised 2010 adj. EPS, rev. forecast
  • Expedia (EXPE) 3Q adj. EPS beat est.
  • First Solar (FSLR) raised 2010 EPS forecast
  • Genworth Financial (GNW) 3Q operating profit missed est. 
  • Microsoft (MSFT) 1Q EPS, rev. beat ests.
  • Monster Worldwide (MWW) forecast 4Q adj. EPS of as much as 8c vs est. 5c
  • Power-One (PWER) 3Q adj. EPS beat est. 
  • SolarWinds (SWI) 3Q adj. EPS beat est.

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.11%), S&P +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.16%, Russell 2000 (0.45%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.02%, S&P +3.73%, Nasdaq +5.86%, Russell +3.68%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.58%, S&P +6.16%, Nasdaq +10.50%, Russell +12.09%
  • Sector Performance: Healthcare +0.5%, Consumer Disc +0.46%, Consumer Spls +0.35%, Utilities +0.25%, Materials +0.06%, Tech flat, Financials (0.3%), Industrials (0.22%), Energy (-0.22%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 18 (+964)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 1002.43 (-1.94%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Eastman Kodak +15.37%, LSI +7.38% and FMC +6.48%/Flowserve -12.19%, JDS -11.42% and Goodyear Tire -9.04%.
  • VIX: 20.88 +0.82% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-3.69%) - THE VIX IS UP 10.8% THIS WEEK
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.22 from 2.15 +3.09% - UP EVERY DAY THIS WEEK

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.31 -0.101 (-0.617%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13% -0.01%    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.32 from 2.35

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 299.89 +0.25%
  • Oil: 82.18 +0.29% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 378.75 +0.32% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,340.88 +1.39% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3922 +1.10% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.308 -1.08%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.45%); DAX: (0.28%); CAC 40: (0.53%)
    European markets after opening little changed have subsequently drifted lower in a broad retreat, in light trading ahead of US GDP data.
  • Regional economic data was mixed.
  • Major indices currently trade close to session lows and peripheral debt remains pressured as spreads widen led by Greece and Ireland. All but four sectors trade lower led by banks. Healthcare and autos are the leading gainers. There are reports that EU leaders have agreed on limited treaty changes with a final decision expected in Dec.
  • Germany Sep Preliminary Retail Sales +0.4% y/y vs prior +2.2%
  • UK Sep Mortgage Approvals 47,474 vs consensus 46,000
  • EuroZone Oct preliminary CPI and EuroZone Sep Unemployment rate due at 5ET

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei (1.75%); Hang Seng (0.49%); Shanghai Composite (0.46%)
  • Markets fell with tech plays losing ground on worries about earnings while the stronger yen once again weighs on Japanese exporters.
  • Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the timing of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting was not behind the BOJ’s decision to bring forward its own meeting to 4-5 Nov from later in the month.
  • Japan Sep core CPI (1.1%) y/y vs survey (1.0%). Tokyo Oct core CPI (0.5%) vs survey (0.8%). Japan Sep unemployment rate 5.0% vs 5.1% seq,
  • Japan Sep industrial production (1.9%) m/m vs survey (0.6%)

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER