Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
Since TRENDs are defined as having a duration of “3 months or more”, they’re good at contextualizing The Cycle. With immediate-term TRADEs which are “3 weeks or less”, especially into options expiration, anything can happen.
Commodities are a good example of inversely correlated TRADEs (vs. USD) but Cyclical @Hedgeye TRENDs that we have been riding since June of 2020:
“So”… the people who completely missed being long of A) #InflationAccelerating for the last 12 months and/or B) Commodities as an Asset Class will be the 1st to call out “Lumber and Corn” (and the last to mention Oil or Cattle).
I can empathize with those economists and strategists, because that’s what they do. They seek numbers on the abacus that support their “deflation” narrative – they don’t know the numbers that drive the @Hedgeye Inflation Nowcasts.