Dear Hedgeye Nation,
We are excited to bring you yet another heavy-hitting macro-dose of financial insight with our newest Real Conversation on HedgeyeTV.
Throughout June, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough is hosting a special Real Conversations series with four leading market strategists: Inflation Tsunami: Investing During A Rising Inflationary Tide.
In this edition, Keith is joined by David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates.
For access to the entire slate our special "Inflation Tsunami" interviews, click here.
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McCullough: "I am quite interested in understanding the path and the differences of the disinflation, because of course we are going to see the peak of the cyclical inflation that I have been long of. We are going to see that imminently really from a modeling perspective. I want to get your thoughts first on the trajectory of what you think is going to go away, however you want to define it in terms of inflation outright going away, or disinflating at a slow pace. Whatever you think."
Rosenberg: "Well look, I think what we've got on our hands is a deviation from a trend line. Look, you and I would be having the same conversation a decade ago when we came out of the Great Recession and the economy for a time-period was strengthening.
We had Obama infrastructure package, we had fiscal stimulus, we had quantitative easing upon quantitative easing, and zero rates. Remember back then, Bernanke was being used as the piñata by the inflationists, much like Powell is right now.
And inflation actually from a 16 month period went from 1% to 4% in 2010 into 2011. The reality is that nobody remembers that. People might remember what is happening right now because it's in the context of the pandemic, but it's a deviation among a trend line.
I would say among the inflationists, you have to explain to me what's really changed except for the fact that we are living in a world where the data has got extreme dislocation, distortion, and noise because of everything that has happened in the last 16 months."
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MORE INSIGHT WITH DAVID ROSENBERG
David previously served as Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates and Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings.
Watch last year's "Real Conversation" between Rosenberg and McCullough: "Navigating The Next Chapter Of This Market Crisis: David Rosenberg & Keith McCullough"
If you are interested in receiving a 30-day trial to David's research click here.