THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 28, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.22% downside to 1168 and 0.81% upside to 1192.  Equity futures are trading above fair value in the wake of Wednesday's session which saw the S&P 500’s 5-day winning streak end.

Focus today will be further corporate earnings and weekly jobless claims.

  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) 3Q profit, sales beat est.
  • Allstate (ALL) 3Q EPS, rev. missed ests.
  • Cavium Networks (CAVM) 3Q EPS, rev. beat ests.
  • Energy XXI Bermuda (EXXI) offers 9.5m shares of common stock, $200m convertible preferred stock.
  • Express Scripts (ESRX) sees 2010, 2011 EPS inline or above ests, 3Q rev. misses ests.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) sees 2011 Ebitda >$3b, 3Q EPS, rev. beat ests.
  • Norfolk Southern (NSC) 3Q EPS beat ests.
  • Skechers U.S.A. (SKX) said 4Q, 2011 sales will increase. 3Q rev. missed est.
  • Sourcefire (FIRE) forecast 4Q EPS, rev. below ests.
  • Symantec (SYMC): Forecast 3Q sales above est.
  • TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT) forecast 4Q adj. EPS in-line with ests.
  • Visa (V) 4Q adj. EPS in-line with ests., sees FY2011 rev. growth 11%-15%

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.39%), S&P (0.27%), Nasdaq +0.24%, Russell 2000 (0.38%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.14%, S&P +3.61%, Nasdaq +5.68%, Russell +4.15%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.70%, S&P +6.04%, Nasdaq +10.32%, Russell +12.61%
  • Sector Performance: Materials (0.92%), Industrials (0.74%), Energy (0.42%), Healthcare (0.61%), Consumer Disc (0.62%), Consumer Spls (0.52%), Utilities (0.41%), Financials +0.07%, Tech +0.29%

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -946 (-707)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE: 1022.31 (+5.77%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Broadcom +11.66%, Devry +7.04% and Prologis +6.41%/Sprint -9.85%, Molex -7.67% and Unitedhealth -4.37%.
  • VIX: 20.71 +2.42% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-4.47%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.15 from 1.97 +9.15%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 16.24 0.406 (2.564%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14%    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.35 from 2.27

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 299.14 -0.71%
  • Oil: 81.94 -0.74% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 377.55 -2.42% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,322.55 -1.23% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3771 -0.67% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 78.149 +0.57%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: +1.128%; DAX +0.86%; CAC 40 +0.91%
  • Risk appetite was in evidence again early on following successive falls as a weaker dollar encouraged selective buying.
  • Mining, Retail and Technology names were the main gainers across the continent with a number of better than expected earnings adding to the improved mood among the continent's investment community.
  • Germany Oct unemployment rate +7.5% vs cons +7.4%  

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei (0.22%); Hang Seng +0.20%; Shanghai Composite (0.15%)
  • Markets closed mixed-to-little changed despite Wall Street’s decline.
  • Tokyo recouped some of its earlier losses but closed in the red following the results of a Bank of Japan meeting while in Hong Kong Bank of China rose on beating expectations.
  • Australia was lifted by strong results for ANZ Bank.
  • Insurers weighed on the Shanghai index
  • Bank of Japan keeps o/n call rate target unch at 0-0.1%. Sep retail sales +1.2% y/y. Dept-store comps (5%), convenience-store comps +12.2% 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER