As everybody sits down on Tuesday morning ready to crank after a summer-ending long weekend, I think it is an opportune time to gauge how realistic earnings expectations are heading into 4Q and 2009. I did this about a month ago and was startled to see how lofty expectations were headed into 2H and holiday given rising input costs, slowing consumer demand, etc… Well now those factors have intensified, and we have the added (MASSIVE) factor that is the strengthening US dollar. I don’t know if the consensus is looking…but we are 9 weeks away from the first time in almost 4 years where the yy delta in the $/Euro is negative for US multinationals.
I’ve been reminded a couple of times in my career that nothing is impossible. But missing expectations over the next 12 months is as close to a mathematical certainty as I’ve ever seen in this group.