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PNK YOUTUBE

In preparation for what looks to be a strong Q3 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the pertinent forward looking commentary from PNK’s Q2 earnings release/call. 

 

 

YOUTUBE PNK Q2

  • “We’ve seen margin improvement this last quarter, but I’ll tell you it’s just the beginning of our ability to thoughtfully look through each one of our operations and for us to improve our margins.”
  • “There is much activity in this company to improve things even beyond margins as we rationalize our delivery system, if you will, for our product, our entertainment casino product, as we look at hotel optimization, as we look at our floors, as we examine assets and discard those that are unnecessary or drag on our system, and as we consolidate offices to be a better management team here in Las Vegas.”
  • “But in the quarter, in particular at River City, we did overstaff on a payroll basis. We did have a couple of unlucky workers comp items in the quarter at that property. We also had some base stock amortization, which will normalize after six months, and so those numbers are higher. We expected some higher numbers in that category, but that’s not the run rate. We’ll get that in-line in the next quarter or two.”
  • “And so our expectation is that, while the economy as a whole is not great and the recovery is slower than anybody will like, we feel fairly optimistic about our prospects going forward, and where we sit competitively in the markets we’re in.”
  • “We don’t have a CRM system today. And we have done a good job driving revenues with really a lack of tools.”
  • “I’m going to guess out loud it’s [effective tax rate] 10% or perhaps south on an annual basis.
  • [Corporate expense in 3Q] “8 million. I think it’s in-line with that."

THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 27, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.66% downside to 1166 and 0.45% upside to 1191.  Equity futures are trading below fair value having finished narrowly in positive territory on Tuesday after indices pared earlier losses. A stronger dollar has dampened risk appetite across Asia and Europe as investors curtail expectations for QE and look to cover naked short dollar positions ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Earnings will again take center stage, while Sep Durable Goods and New Home Sales are the primary economic releases.

  • Aflac (AFL) 3Q rev., EPS beat ests.
  • Broadcom (BRCM) 3Q rev. beat est., said it is to acquire Percello for ~$86. Offers $600m senior notes
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) sees net earnings growth next year below est. 3Q adj. EPS beat est.
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 3Q rev. missed est.
  • Delphi Financial Group (DFG) 3Q operating EPS, rev. beat est.
  • DeVry (DV) 1Q EPS, rev. beat est.
  • DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA) 3Q EPS beat est.
  • Equinix (EQIX) sees 2011 rev. above est.
  • F5 Networks (FFIV) announces buy back of up to $200m shares and 4Q adj. EPS beat est.
  • Fiserv (FISV) 3Q EPS beat est., affirmed 2010 EPS forecast
  • Illumina (ILMN) 3Q EPS, rev. beat ests.
  • JDA Software (JDAS) 3Q adj. EPS beat ests, said it sees achieving higher end of 2010 software rev. forecast range
  • McKesson (MCK) reaffirmed its 2011 fiscal earnings forecast of $4.72 to $4.92 a share. Earnings showed positive impact of non-cash, pre-tax asset impairment charge of $72m in Technology Solutions
  • Molex (MOLX) forecast 2Q EPS below est.
  • Netgear (NTGR) 3Q adj. EPS beat est., forecast 4Q rev. above est.
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) 3Q adj. EPS beat est. 
  • Panera Bread (PNRA) sees 2011 EPS above est. 
  • Western Union Co. (WU) 3Q EPS beat est, raised its outlook for the year

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.05%, S&P 0.00%, Nasdaq +0.26%, Russell 2000 (0.14%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.54%, S&P +3.89%, Nasdaq +5.43%, Russell +4.55%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +7.11%, S&P +6.33%, Nasdaq +10.05%, Russell +13.04%
  • Sector Performance: Consumer Disc +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Tech +0.1%, Financials +0.1%, Telecom +0.1%, Utilities (0.2%), Materials (0.2%), Industrials (0.3%), Healthcare (0.3%), Consumer Spls (0.4%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -239 (-832)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 966.37 (-4.02%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Coach +11.92%, Natl Oilwell +8.46% and Carnival +6.37%/Lexmark -20.98%, Tellabs-13.15% and Regions Financial -7.82%.
  • VIX: - 20.22 +1.86% - YTD PERFORMANCE - (-6.73%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: - 1.97 from 1.91 +3.22%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 16.06 -0.609 (-3.651%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD 0.14%    
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.27 from 2.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 301.29 +0.33%
  • Oil: 82.55 +0.04% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 386.90 +0.16% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,339.05 +0.27% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3864 -0.69% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.708 +0.78%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.49%); DAX: 0.5%; CAC 40: 0.15%
  • European markets opened lower as investors reviewed a mixed set of European earning releases and a stronger US dollar weighed on commodity prices sending the sectors lower.
  • Results from SAP and Heineken saw their shares decline whilst Deutsche Bank bucked the trend post its Q3.

Asian markets:

  • Asian Markets: Nikkei +0.1%; Hang Seng (1.9%); Shanghai Composite (1.46%)
  • Asian markets were mostly down today.
  • A stronger US dollar led to sell-offs in materials and commodities stocks.
  • Japan finished flat after a rollercoaster day.
  • South Korea fell as investors waited for earnings reports later this week; sentiment was dampened when Q3 GDP growth slowed sequentially. 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



Isolated Curiosities

“Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line.”

-Benoît Mandelbrot

 

To say Benoît Mandelbrot lived a great life would be an understatement.  The recently deceased Sterling Professor of Mathematial Sciences at Yale University had the opportunity to follow and study his passion his entire life and, as a result, his contributions to the field of mathematics were vast.

 

Most interesting to our Hedgeyes was Mandelbrot’s work on fractals, which underscore many of our own market models.   In fact, Mandelbrot actually coined the term fractal in his consummate work, The Fracatal Geometry of Nature.  He also did what many academics actually have a hard time doing, he extended his academic studies into the more practical areas. According to our friends at Wikipedia:

 

“Although Mandelbrot coined the term fractal, some of the mathematical objects he presented in The Fractal Geometry of Nature had been described by other mathematicians. Before Mandelbrot, they had been regarded as isolated curiosities with unnatural and non-intuitive properties. Mandelbrot brought these objects together for the first time and turned them into essential tools for the long-stalled effort to extend the scope of science to non-smooth objects in the real world. He highlighted their common properties, such as self-similarity (linear, non-linear, or statistical), scale invariance, and a (usually) non-integer Hausdorff dimension.”

 

Mandelobrot passed away at the age of 84 years after more than 60 years of pursuing his passion.  He was one of the most celebrated mathematicians of the last 50 years and won innumerable awards for his work, including:  the Wolf Prize for Physics in 1993, the Lewis Fry Richardson Prize of the European Geophysical Society in 2000, the Japan Prize in 2003, and the Einstein Lectureship of the American Mathematical Society in 2006.  Most interestingly of his awards was perhaps that fact that he has an asteroid named after him:  27,500 Mandelbrot.

 

As it relates to financial markets, his primary contribution was determining that price changes in “financial markets did not follow a Gaussian distribution, but rather Lévy stable distributions having theoretically infinite variance.”  In addition to his study of financial markets, he also had an idiosyncratic character that was near and dear to our hearts. So much so in fact, that he actually gave himself his own middle initial, “B”, which actually did not stand for anything.

 

So in memory of Professor Mandelbrot and chaos theorists everywhere (especially our Harvard friend at a well known money management firm in Canada), we are going to focus on only 3 important global macro events this morning as it relates to managing risk, which are as follows:

 

1.  The Election – As many of our subscribers know elections are near and dear to our hearts and the upcoming midterm election is one we’ve been very focused on. (If you would like to trial our research and to see some of proprietary election analysis, please email sales@hedgeye.com.)  In fact, we are on record saying that we are more bullish for Republican chances than our friend Karl Rove.   For us, though, it is not about politics, but is simply math.  As the math stands now, and excluding races that are “too close to call”, the Republicans will win 233 seats in the house (a majority) and will win 45 seats in the Senate.  We believe that turnout could be the wildcard and slide many of the “too close to calls” to the Republicans as many poll internals show a highly motivated Republican base.  The primary implication of this is that the Republicans will likely implement immediate budget cuts, which, according to reports this morning, could be as much as $100BN as soon as January.  While in the short term a decline in government spending may hurt GDP, in the longer term deficit reductions will put the U.S. economy on a more stable path of growth.

 

2.  Greek Deficits – If you don’t think that government numbers can be wrong or revised lower, well now you know.  Greek deficits this morning were revised higher to 15% of GDP as, shockingly, tax revenues were worse than expected.  As we’ve been saying for months, sovereign debt issues in Europe will rear their ugly heads again and obviously Greece is at the forefront of that again this morning.  We’ve highlighted this point of Interconnected Global Risk in the Chart of the Day below, which highlights that credit default swaps in Europe are making higher lows. As these CDS spreads increase, we are likely to see equity markets act inversely to those spreads widening.

 

3.  U.S. Dollar – The U.S. dollar is appreciating this morning (not a sentence we have been used to typing over the last few months) on the back of Wall Street Journal reports that while Quantitative Guessing will likely be implemented on some level, it won’t be the “shock and awe” type that many proponents of Krugman Kryptonite were hoping would be implemented.  It seems Chairman Bernanke may actually be listening to some of his colleagues at the Fed like Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, who said Monday that more expansive monetary policy was a "bargain with the devil."  Indeed.  The most immediate term impact of a stronger dollar is likely a correction in those commodities that are priced in dollars.

 

Just like Mandelbrot, many of the fine folks at Hedgeye have left higher paying jobs to pursue their passion. This passion is the art and process of producing objective and real-time investment research, which we believe is Hedgeye’s core competency.  We aren’t always right and we aren’t always popular, but we passionately believe in what we do and we thank you for your support. 

 

Yours in risk management,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director

 

Isolated Curiosities - brots


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LIKELY A DISAPPOINTING SEPT ON THE STRIP

Airport traffic was down 2% which should contribute to a lousy September on the Strip. Shrewd timing by MGM and its equity deal.

 

 

August was a blockbuster month on the Las Vegas Strip and MGM took advantage by pricing its equity deal the week after the numbers were released.  Nice timing.  At least they released their full quarter numbers so we could back into the September performance.  It didn’t look good then, at least in the Baccarat segment, (“STRIP BACCARAT TOOK A BIG BREATHER IN SEPTEMBER, 10/13/10) and it doesn’t look good now.  With airport traffic down 2% and facing difficult hold comparisons, the other gaming segments will likely come in disappointing as well, particularly slot win.

 

When MGM pre-released earnings, our conclusion then was “a 50% move in the stock for this?”  Indeed, the stock is down 19% in an up market and up sector since the day before they announced the equity deal.  In addition to the dilution, the anticipation of a September slowdown probably contributed to the stock pressure so the actual revenue release may not be a huge surprise.  However, it is clear that Las Vegas is not making the V-shaped recovery implied by the August numbers.  One month does not make a trend.

 

Here are our projections for September and the McCarran numbers:

 

LIKELY A DISAPPOINTING SEPT ON THE STRIP - strip1

 

LIKELY A DISAPPOINTING SEPT ON THE STRIP - mccarran


THE M3: UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED

The Macau Metro Monitor, October 27th 2010

 

EMPLOYMENT SURVEY FOR JULY-SEPTEMBER 2010 DSEC

The unemployment rate for July-September 2010 remained unchanged from the previous period (June-August 2010) at 2.9%.  The employed population increased by about 2,700 over the previous period to 320,200, in which employment of the Gaming Sector and Wholesale & Retail Trade both saw an increase.  Total labor force was 329,600 in July-September 2010 and the labour force participation rate stood at 71.8%, up by 0.4% point from the previous period.  Number of the unemployed held stable at 9,400, with 19.0% being fresh labour force entrants searching for their first job, up by 1.8% points over the previous period.  

 

 

 

BWLD – FIRST LOOK

Conclusion: Results were slightly ahead of expectations but commentary indicated that current trends are sluggish.  However, on a two-year average basis the early trends in the fourth quarter continue to demonstrate acceleration on a two-year basis.

 

BWLD’s 3Q10 earnings came in at $0.47 per share, better than both my estimate of $0.45 per share and the street’s $0.44 per share estimate.  Company-owned same-store sales grew 2.6% in the quarter relative to the street’s 1.8% estimate, implying a 35 bp acceleration in two-year average trends.  Given the strong top-line trends and favorable food costs, which declined 185 bps YOY as a percentage of sales, restaurant-level margins improved about 110 bps YOY (putting BWLD in the Nirvana quadrant of our restaurant sigma chart).  The decline in the cost of chicken wings (down 15% YOY) drove the majority of this YOY food cost favorability.  The company’s reported tax rate of 30.4% came in lower than I was modeling and added about $0.02 per share relative to my numbers.

 

Although the company reported that company-owned comparable sales declined 0.7% during the first four weeks of 4Q10, this points to a 90 bp increase in two-year average trends since the end of 3Q10 as the company was lapping a difficult +5.9% comp from the first four weeks of 4Q09.  To that end, the low end of management’s 4Q10 comp guidance of “at least flat” is somewhat disappointing as the comparisons get easier for the balance of the quarter and a flat comp in 4Q10 implies a 40 bp slowdown in two-year average trends from 3Q10.  Same-store sales growth at franchisees slowed about 40 bps during the third quarter on a two-year average basis and trends during early 4Q10 remained in line with 3Q10 results.  And, the company’s FY11 EPS guidance of over 18% growth falls short of BWLD’s more typical 20%-plus range.  On the earnings call, management explained that earnings growth will be limited somewhat by higher YOY preopening expenses and increased investment internationally.  Management said its FY11 forecasts are still preliminary, however, and for now, they are being conservative, but they will give more guidance on expected earnings growth come their 4Q10 earnings call.

 

Relative to expected food costs in FY11, the company has extended its contract on boneless wings (represented 19% of 3Q10 sales) through March 2012 at prices about even with 2010 levels.  Although traditional wing costs (represented 21% of 3Q10 sales) have proven extremely favorable during the last two quarters and should continue to benefit margins in 4Q10 (about $1.51 per pound versus $1.78 in 4Q09), management said prices continue to fluctuate monthly and are one of the biggest unknowns relative to the company’s current commodity outlook.  That being said, the company currently expects traditional wing costs to be beneficial to margins on a YOY basis and is planning to implement a menu price increase in January, resulting in a cumulative 2% menu price increase for 1H11.

 

BWLD – FIRST LOOK - bwld sigma

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


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