Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Happy #Quad2 Birthday to my Dad, John McCullough, today btw. If you knew how much hard work that man pushed through his back, shoulders, and hands every waking hour of the day, you’d wake up early and grind like I do too.

But, but… I get the birthday thing and that you work hard… but, can you tell us when it’s #Quad4?

Yes. I can tell you with 100% certainty that #Quad4 wasn’t yesterday. It was in neither our proprietary GDP nor our US INFLATION Nowcast yesterday. As of yesterday’s TRADE (immediate-term) and TREND data, both hit new Cycle Highs:

A) ISM New Orders #accelerated to a new Cycle High of 67.0 in MAY vs. 64.3 in APR
B) ISM Business Backlog #accelerated to a new Cycle High of 70.6 in MAY vs. 68.2 in APR

That US economic report came on the heels of epic #Quad2 accelerations in both Durable Goods and Capex of +52.1% and +25.3% year-over-year growth at the end of last week.

That puts our USA GDP Nowcast at yet another new Cycle High of +12.81% #Quad2 in Q2.

CHART OF THE DAY: When Will It Be #Quad4? Look At ISM Backlogs - el62


McCullough: #Quad2 Positioning Redux: FX & Commodities