POSITION: Short the SP500 (SPY)
We shorted the SP500 today at 9:53AM, so our view of the US stock market here is implied. We are very time and price sensitive and all the while respectful of the reality that immediate term tops are processes, not points.
This morning’s early run-up was real. On my immediate term TRADE duration, it was the first one-day 3 standard deviation move I’ve observed since October 13th. While the selloff from October 13th to October 19th wasn’t a big one. It was enough to stop the slope and expediency of the market’s weekly ascent. Looking forward at the next two weeks of market catalysts, I won’t be surprised if we look back at today’s intraday highs the same way.
I’m not bearish for bearish sake. In terms of bearish calendar catalysts, here’s what I see coming down the immediate term pike:
- Tuesday = Case Shiller Home Prices for August (bearish)
- Wednesday = New Home Sales for September (bearish)
- Thursday = the Bank of Japan’s outlook report (bearish)
- Friday = US GDP for Q3 (bearish)
Most importantly, I now have the immediate and intermediate term TRADE (1191) and TREND (1216) lines of resistance in close proximity to where I shorted SPY this morning.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer