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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 22, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.53% downside to 1174 and 0.57% upside to 1187.  Equity futures are lower tracking European equities.  Little movement ahead of the outcome of the G20 meeting in South Korea.

No major economic data is expected today.

  • Align Technology (ALGN) 4Q EPS, rev. forecasts trailed est.
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 4Q op. income forecast missed est.
  • American Express (AXP) 3Q EPS beat est.
  • Barnes & Noble (BKS) may face trial in lawsuit over bookstore buyout 
  • Boeing (BA) considering boosting 737 production rate to 40/month vs current 31.5 now
  • Cephalon (CEPH) xercised its options to acquire BioAssets Development for $12.5m
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) 3Q EPS beat est.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) sees 2010 comp sales up in the high single digits 
  • Citrix Systems (CTXS) sees 4Q rev. ahead of estimates
  • H&R Block (HRB US): CDS traders paid more to protect H&R Block’s debt against near-term losses than for longer-dated contracts
  • Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) 4Q rev. forecast below est.
  • Manpower(MAN) 3Q EPS beat est.
  • NCR (NCR) raised 2010 adj. EPS forecast
  • News Corp. (NWSA) will reassign employees working on Project Alesia after failing to attract enough interest from other news organizations, the Post Chronicle, citing a person familiar.
  • Playboy Enterprises (PLA) expects to record charge >$20 m charge in 3Q on writing down TV programming inventory
  • Polycom (PLCM) 3Q EPS beat est.
  • Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 3Q adj. EPS, rev. beat est.
  • SanDisk (SNDK) sees 4Q rev inline, gross margins lower

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.35%, S&P +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.09%, Russell 2000 (0.57%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +3.32%, S&P +3.42%, Nasdaq +3.84%, Russell +3.25%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.89%, S&P +5.84%, Nasdaq +8.40%, Russell +11.63%
  • Sector Performance: Consumer Disc +0.58%, Industrials +0.81%, Consumer Spls +0.35%, Healthcare +0.26%, Tech +0.08%, Energy (0.03%), Financials (0.03%), Materials (0.03%), Utilities (0.43%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -59 (-1625)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1055.91 (-4.09%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Flir +6.37%, Ebay +5.96% and Suntrust +4.48%/Janus Capital -5.90%, Tesoro -5.60% and E*Trade -4.14%.
  • VIX: - 19.27 -2.63% - YTD PERFORMANCE - (-11.12%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: - 1.70 from 1.93 -11.57%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 16.88 0.203 (1.217%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD 0.13% -.01%  
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.20 from 2.16

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 295.00 -1.15%
  • Oil: 82.56 -2.40% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 378.15 -0.32% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,324.35 -1.63%% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3938 -0.16% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.418 +0.32%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.44%); DAX (0.13%); CAC 40 (0.14%)
  • European markets are lower in morning trade ahead however good earnings figures have limited the downside.
  • Ericsson is the standout gainer on the back of good Q3 figures. The numbers also boost the Technology sector.
  • Basic Resources is the worst performing sector tracking weak metals prices.
  • Construction sector crumbles after Investec downgrades all major UK house-building stocks.
  • Germany Oct IFO Business Climate index +107.6 vs consensus +106.5

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei +0.54%; Hang Seng (0.56%); Shanghai Composite (0.28%)
  • Asian markets ended the day mixed as investors remained on the sidelines and chose to wait and see what happens at today’s G20 meeting in South Korea.
  • Japan September supermarket sales (0.3%) y/y vs prior (0.8%) 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER