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Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary research note written by National Security analyst LTG Dan Christman. To access our Macro Policy research please email sales@hedgeye.com. |
In 1995, peace was in the air. That spring, I was privileged to dine with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, and after supper, to ascend to his garden on the roof of his modest apartment on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
Rabin verbally sketched his vision for peace with the Palestinians as he gestured toward the east. It was a vision, in his words, of “bridges, not walls.”
I was at that point a member of the Secretary of State’s Middle East peace team, and progress towards a peace deal with both the Palestinians and Syrians (my area of concentration) was significant.
The moment was exhilarating. It was not to last.
A bullet from an Israeli assassin’s gun a few months later ended Rabin’s vision, as assuredly did the shortsightedness of Yasser Arafat, the then-Palestinian leader, in failing to seize a historic opportunity with a committed peace partner.
The contrast between those heady days in 1995 and the nightmare scenes we’ve seen in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank for two weeks is tragically stark. For the last two decades, despite major efforts from every U.S. President, peace was never again in the air.
With a cease-fire now in place, it’s useful to remind that the conditions that set off the latest Israeli-Palestinian crisis were months, even years, in the making. But early this month a set of unique political and celebratory events provided the spark.
Jon Alterman at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) painted the picture: first, a simultaneous political crisis in both Israel and the Palestinian Authority as aging leaders struggled for their political survival; and second, nearly simultaneous celebrations of Leilat al-Qadr (marking the revelation of the Qur’an to the Prophet) and “Jerusalem Day” (commemorating Israeli control over the Old City in the ’67 war).
With Temple Mount and the Western Wall the focus of each of these celebratory events, it took very little to produce deadly confrontation; and Hamas, attuned to reports of possible Palestinian evictions in East Jerusalem, was looking for any pretext to light the fuse.
As Alterman described it, when Israeli police moved on Palestinian Muslims gathered at a site holy to Jews and Muslims alike in the middle of Ramadan, it was all Hamas needed to launch their rocket barrage. A deadly cycle of attacks and counterattacks predictably escalated.
The U.S. role throughout the crisis has been more side-line than center-stage; or as the Biden press spokesperson described it, “quiet, behind the scenes.”
One strategic analyst has charitably written that the U.S. now considers this region to be no more than an “economy of force” theater as we turn our focus to Asia; less charitably, I’d characterize it as the U.S. losing strategic interest: thirty years of trying to broker a peace deal has led to the inevitable emotional weariness, and eventually, disengagement.
President Biden was late to the game in finally supporting a cease-fire. But there remain concrete actions the U.S. can take, particularly with regional partners and the UN. Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to the region this week, hopefully with some “action options” in his diplomatic pouch.
Former Special U.S. Middle East Coordinator (SMEC) Dennis Ross recently outlined one: the U.S. leading an international effort both to delegitimize the use of rockets by Hamas and to rebuild Gaza – with the key provision that Hamas must be effectively disarmed before any international reconstruction aid is dispatched. As Ambassador Ross summarized: “Force Hamas to choose between its rockets and reconstruction.”
International leadership is what President Biden campaigned on; now is the time to exercise it if he wants to do more than reestablish a tense and brittle status quo ante.
IF the cease-fire holds – and many earlier clashes witnessed multiple cease-fire breakdowns before a semblance of stability was restored - at least two larger issues loom:
First, can the sides at some point reconcile differences and reach a deal that finally establishes a Palestinian state? No.
A viable two-state solution, still an articulated goal of U.S. policy, has become a virtual impossibility geographically because of years of incremental construction by Israeli settlers in land envisioned to form the necessary contiguity of a Palestinian state.
To be clear, the Israelis had been prepared to offer the necessary geographical concessions. But no Palestinian leader could get to “yes;” and with Hamas digging in, none is likely to now, or over any conceivable diplomatic timeline going forward.
And second, will the diplomatic and commercially significant “Abraham Accords” that normalized relations between Israel and the GCC states UAE and Bahrain survive this crisis? Yes.
What this blow-up between Israel and Hamas has done is to set back in all likelihood any normalization moves between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But including the Saudis in the Abraham Accords was always a long shot.
Nevertheless, the normalization deals now on the books with Israel (broadened to include Morocco and Sudan) remain significant and largely immune from the impact of Hamas rockets and Israeli counter-strikes.
“Neither Armageddon nor Peace” is hardly an inspiring predictor of the future for this troubled region on the eastern Mediterranean littoral. But it remains a sad reminder of how fleeting peace opportunities can be, and the need to seize those moments when they arise. Unlike Jordan’s King Hussein and Egypt’s Anwar Sadat, who seized their days, Yasser Arafat never could.
In the middle of the blood-letting last week, a contributing columnist for the Washington Post lamented that “this can’t go on.” But it will go on. With a two-state solution all but dead, there is no basis for an enduring compromise or a lasting peace.
The sad reality is that the Palestinians, like the Kurds and the Catalans and the Rohingya and countless other ethnic groups, will remain stateless for generations. THAT is what will go on. And no American or European or multinational diplomatic push will likely alter the course of this enduring tragedy.
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ABOUT LIEUTENANT GENERAL DAN CHRISTMAN
LTG Dan Christman, USA, Ret. serves as Hedgeye Potomac Research’s Senior National Security Analyst, providing deep insight into international affairs and national security. Most recently, Dan provided strategic leadership on international issues affecting the business community for organizations such as the US Chamber of Commerce. Dan’s long history of leadership includes his service as a United States Army lieutenant general and former Superintendent of the United States Military Academy. He served in highly visible and strategically important positions and four times was awarded the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, the nation's highest peacetime service award.
He also served for two years as assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during which time he traveled with and advised Secretary of State Warren Christopher. He was centrally involved during this period with negotiations between Israel and Syria as a member of the Secretary's Middle East Peace Team. Further, Christman represented the United States as a member of NATO's Military Committee in Brussels, Belgium.
Graduating first in his class from West Point, Christman also received MPA and MSE degrees in public affairs and civil engineering from Princeton University and graduated with honors from The George Washington University Law School. He is a decorated combat veteran of Southeast Asia, where he commanded a company in the 101st Airborne Division in 1969.
