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TICKERS DISCUSSED

LONGS: WMT, GIS, DKNG, AMPL, META

SHORTS: BLMN, PEB, PK, XHR, HD, DDS, POOL, CROX, AMN, NXRT 

OTHERS: DVA

BROADCAST SUMMARY

Restaurants: Howard Penney - 00:01:02

  • Short – Bloomin’ Brands Inc. (BLMN): Raised higher on our short list; stock up 13% last week; guided up due to favorable tax in Brazil; not an operational guide; Outback business is flat; company is broken fundamentally; BLMN remains a short

Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi – 00:02:42

  • Long – Walmart Inc. (WMT): Beat earnings expectations ($1.71 vs. $1.52 consensus) but guided Q1 and the year lower; deceleration in same store sales; moving lower on the long list; WMT remains a long
  • Long – General Mills (GIS): Raised top and bottom-line outlook for the year; reflecting a more normalized view, they were too conservative in their original guide; food inflation is going to be a lot higher than people may think for the year; GIS remains a long

Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Todd Jordan – 00:07:51

  • Long – DraftKings Inc (DKNG): Huge move into the quarter and huge move on Friday; guidance looks to be too low; same state revenues are accelerating; margins are expanding; going to beat new guidance; DKNG remains a long
  • Hotels: TSA data is softening; business travel is struggling and getting worse; earnings haven’t been great for hotel REITs; decelerating top lines and margins are going down; cost structures are going higher; Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB), Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK), Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XHR) remain shorts

Retail: Brian McGough- 00:10:40

  • Short – The Home Depot Inc. (HD): Want to be short right now; put up a -0.3 comp; Pod 1 is slowing; haven’t put up a negative comp in 12 years; leaning on SG&A growth; going to see a lot more downward earnings revisions; HD remains a short
  • Short – Dillard’s Inc. (DDS): Put out numbers this morning; put up a flat year vs. last year; not as good as what consensus expected; didn’t buy back a single share of stock this quarter; stock is overvalued, earnings will mean revert in the upcoming year; DDS remains a short
  • Elevating to Best Idea Short – Pool Corporation (POOL): Taking up to best idea short; put out nosebleed guidance last week; POOL putting out a bullish narrative on pool construction this year; inconsistent with what we are seeing out of other pool retailers; POOL is a now a best idea short
  • Short – Crocs Inc. (CROX): Not investing enough in core brands; Pod 1 is slowing; guided to a slowdown in top line; as core business slows, they will have to invest in SG&A to get the top line going again, and this could take years; CROX remains a short

Healthcare: Tom Tobin – 00:23:19

  • Short – AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN): Biggest problem for the stock is how they end Q1 and what happens going into Q2; data showing reversion back to volume numbers of 2019; unwind is both on the volume side and the rates that get paid; this will persist, does not get better in 2024; AMN remains a short

Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans – 00:28:45

  • DaVita Inc. (DVA): Reports tomorrow; expecting volumes to be better than Q3; will be paying close attention to commentary on excess mortality and if there have been any improvements in this area

REITs: Rob Simone – 00:32:16

  • Short – NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT): reported this morning; beat on the quarter but weak outlook relative to where consensus was; still going through the report; NXRT remains a short

Industrials: Jay Van Sciver – 00:36:30

  • Mid-Quarter Update: Hosting our 1Q23 Mid-Quarter Themes Update on Thursday @ 2pm ET

Technology: Yosef Vaitsblit - 00:44:08

  • Moving Down to Long Bench – Amplitude Inc. (AMPL): We thought churn problems would set up a line of sight for growth in 2023; seems less and less likely; company beat last week but guided below for 2023; didn’t show any profitability; not a “need to have” product in this moment; AMPL is now on the long bench

Communications: Andrew Freedman – 00:48:45

  • Long – Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Testing a new verified program as part of a new monthly subscription service; another step to make Meta a more attractive place for creators to monetize their content; this strategy ties into the ad business; META remains a long

China: Felix Wang - 00:54:50

  • Ecommerce Update: Hosting our monthly Ecommerce Data Update on Today @ 2pm ET

Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur – 00:56:42

  • Social Media: Supreme Court will hear the Gonzalez vs. Google argument today at 10am ET; argument is whether platforms are liable based on their process for recommending certain videos; potential risk if platforms are liable based on content they recommend

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