Watch the replay Below
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TICKERS DISCUSSED LONGS: YUMC, CHD, CLX, MDLZ, BYON, FYBR, PDD SHORTS: CAG, IFF, HSY, SJM, KHC, HD, LOW, COF, DFS NEUTRAL: DPZ, NCLH, POOL, UPBD |
broadcast summary
Restaurants & Cannabis: Howard Penney - 00:00:50
- Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ): We took DPZ off the long list; reported $4.48 vs. $4.43 but with a 10-cent gain; revenues missed; global headwinds are evident; raised dividend by 24%; momentum is definitely slowing.
- New Long Bench – Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC): We are adding YUMC to the long bench; this is a macro call; first half of this year they have difficult Pod 1 comps; we expect the Pods will look better in the 2nd half of the year; YUMC is now on the long bench.
Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi - 00:03:55
- CAGNY: With over 30 companies presenting, CAGNY is the largest Consumer Staples conference of the year; we will review what was said at the conference, our takeaways, and what is actionable from a stock call perspective today at 2:00pm ET; we will also introduce our Consumer Staples Outlook scorecard; the scorecard ranks each company's sales and margin drivers by the visibility they provide for the company's growth plans.
- Position Monitor: We are making numerous changes to our position monitor as we prepare for the last months of Quad 4 and accelerating inflation; we are going long companies that have the strongest or most improving growth formulas that we think will beat the plan for 2024, including Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD), The Clorox Company (CLX), and Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ); on the flip side, we are going short the weakest growth formulas with a higher propensity for disappointments, including Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG), International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF), The Hershey Company (HSY), The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM), and The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC).
Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Sean Jenkins - 00:06:53
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): We expect an in-line Q4 print for NCLH; we think their overall conference call tone will be bullish; bookings backdrop is still positive.
- Illinois: Looking to raise tax dollars and coming after the sports betting industry; Illinois is looking to spend more on a YoY basis but with tax receipts down; looking to raise an additional $200 million from the sports betting industry; operators will ratchet back marketing and promotions.
Retail: Brian McGough - 00:14:14
- Shorts: Removed Pool Corporation (POOL) from our best idea short list; removed Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) from our short bench; moved Home Depot, Inc. (HD) down to our short bench from a best idea short.
- New Best Idea Long – Beyond, Inc. (BYON): Adding BYON to our best idea long list; this is the company that will put Wayfair out of business; we will have Marcus Lemonis and Marc Cohodes in the studio on Friday to discuss BYON which is now a best idea long.
- Home Improvement: Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is reporting tomorrow; HD reported last week; HD guided down comps; their framework is around continued wallet reversion risk; they are aware of their problems; on the LOW side, they still need to guide this year; we do see a de-leverage risk for Lowe’s; HD is now on the short bench & LOW remains a short.
Macro, Housing & Financials: Drago Malesevic - 00:26:33
- Consumer Credit: On the heels of a mega deal in the space and historic event risk around the corner, we are hosting a themes call on the card lenders to review the state and outlook for the industry over the next year; we'll be discussing the state of the consumer, household financial health, credit performance, the potential impact from the CFPB's expected late fee ruling, the Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)/Discover Financial Services (DFS) deal, and other related topics; Black Book will be Thursday at 12:30pm ET.
Communications & Software: Billy Zegras - 00:32:15
- Position Monitor: Moved Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. (FYBR) to our #3 active long; had a strong earnings report; broadband net adds were strong; added Reddit and Sphere to our research bullpen.
Global Technology & Software: Felix Wang - 00:34:45
- Long – Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD): Concerns for PDD based on news that policy makers are looking to ban Temu based on forced labor concerns; these allegations were brought up last year and the year before; new Temu users have been surging globally; PDD’s business remains concentrated in China; PDD remains a long.
Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur - 00:46:02
- Social Media: Today the Supreme Court will hear arguments in the social media cases; these are Texas and Florida laws that prohibited social media platforms from censoring political viewpoints or de-platforming candidates.
Macro Policy: JT Taylor - 00:55:51
- Congress: Looking at another CR or a shutdown this weekend; March 1st deadline and March 8th deadline; 4 bills for March 1st; this is supposed to be the easy tranche; the far-right Republican element in the House are not playing ball; there will be a meeting at the White House tomorrow afternoon.
