Trendspotting: The GOP's Advantage on Inflation

NewsWire: 4/19/22

• By a 14-point margin, Americans trust the GOP more than Democrats to handle inflation. This survey comes as public concern over inflation has risen to its highest level in decades. (Morning Consult)
  
• NH: When Americans were asked at the end of March which party they trust more to handle different issues, Republicans led the way on inflation. Fully 46% of Americans said they trust the GOP more, compared to 32% who chose Democrats. This 14-point margin was the biggest advantage that the GOP had on any issue. The GOP also has the edge on other top-of-mind issues like national security (a 13-point difference), the economy (11 points), immigration (7 points), and jobs (6 points). Other recent polls have shown that public concern about crime--another issue that historically favors Republicans--is rising, too 

• These results are music to the GOP’s ears. When asked recently by Gallup to identify the biggest problem facing the U.S. today, inflation, the economy, and the war in Ukraine made up three of the top four responses. The most popular response at 22% was “the government.”

• The issues that Democrats lead on barely registered in Gallup’s survey. Their biggest trust advantage is with climate change (48% vs. 28%)--but this wasn’t cited by any respondents as a top concern. Americans also trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the environment, health care, Medicare and Social Security, and education, but the only issue out of these to make the list of top concerns was health care (at 3%).
• Covid-19, where Democrats also have an edge, was far and away Americans’ biggest concern a year ago. But the share citing it as the nation’s top problem has fallen dramatically and is now only 3%. And as worries about Covid have been declining, worries about inflation have been rising to the highest level since 1985.
• These numbers have Democrats bracing for big losses in the midterms. Though Biden has overseen record job growth and low unemployment, inflation is felt by voters in a way that’s different from all other economic indicators. The economy might be strong, but Americans aren’t feeling it every time they get gas or go to the supermarket.
• House Republicans are hammering voters with ads emphasizing inflation in competitive states. And they’re already so confident they will regain the majority that one of their top super PACs, the Congressional Leadership Fund, is now targeting “stretch districts” that Biden won in 2020 by an average of 8 points.