Trendspotting: Births in China Continue to Fall

NewsWire: 2/7/22

• In 2021, China’s birthrate fell to a historic low of 7.52 births per 1,000 people. Births barely outnumbered deaths, raising fresh speculation about imminent population decline. (The New York Times)
  
• NH: In a typical January, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases birth data from the prior calendar year. The numbers are then confirmed in its annual Statistical Yearbook published in the fall. The NBS has just released the first look at the 2021 birth data.
• The results? In 2021, there were 10.62M births, and the birthrate was 7.52 births per 1,000 people. Both measures are down -12% from the year prior. (See “China Releases 2020 Population Data.”) Assuming that the decline in births translates into the decrease in the total fertility rate (TFR), China's TFR fell from 1.30 to roughly 1.15. A truly dismal figure.

• This drop in fertility accelerates the timeline for population decline. The NBS reported that the rate of natural increase fell to 0.034%, the lowest rate since China’s population declined during the Great Famine of 1. Some demographers predict the country’s population will start falling this year. (See "China’s Population: A Mystery Wrapped in a Riddle" – Pt. 1 and Pt. 2.)
• Of course, some of this drop may be temporary. Draconian Covid-19 lockdowns during 2020 and early-2021 undoubtedly deterred people from conceiving children. In 2022, we ought to see at least some behavioral rebound as regulations loosen. 
• Moreover, not all the drop in births should be blamed on falling age-specific fertility rates. Another force is also at work: China’s childbearing-age population will rapidly shrink over the 2020s. From 2020 to 2030, the number of Chinese women ages 25-34 --which is currently the phase of life in which most women give birth-- will drop from 111.5M to 74.7M. That’s a shocking -33% decline in the number of childbearing women. And that will go on throughout the coming decade.
• In other words, China’s annual births are falling and will be falling not only due to declining TFR but also due to the severe shrinkage in available mothers. The real culprit, which we have written about before, is the baby bust of the 1990s and early 2000s. This bust came between the large “Deng Birth Wave” of the late 1980s and the much smaller “Xi Birth Wavelet” of the mid-2010s. (See "Global Demography Review.") 

• These birth numbers will no doubt shock the CCP to lean more energetically into pronatalist policies. (See “China Drafts New 'Baby Boost' Policies” and “China Limits Vasectomies.”) Xi Jinping will probably hold back on major initiatives until after China's 2022 Party Congress, when Xi is expected to ask for a lifetime appointment as president. He will not want to rock the boat until then. After the meeting, however, I anticipate he will give his nod to large new spending initiatives to encourage young adults to have more kids. 
• Longer-term, this rapid birth decline could push China to be more aggressive in pursuing its geopolitical goals. Xi has long believed that so long as the west is destroying itself, China only needs to wait patiently and grow stronger for it to come out on top. But if meager birth numbers persuade CCP leaders that China is facing an impending decline of its own, patient waiting may no longer be an attractive option. And perhaps, they will figure, one or two dramatic geopolitical victories could help correct the birth decline by bolstering public confidence and renewing the spirit of patriotism.