Watch Below
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TICKERS DISCUSSED LONGS: MCD, PZZA, DLTR, FLUT, CPRI, FICO, FDX SHORTS: YUM, QSR, ALGN NEUTRAL: GIS, NVO |
broadcast summary
Restaurants & Cannabis: Howard Penney - 00:01:29
- Restaurant Industry Workbook: We are hosting our September Restaurant Industry Workbook presentation today at 2:00pm ET; we will discuss the rationale behind position monitor moves, current market trends, and the latest inputs impacting restaurants nationwide; names we will discuss include McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM), Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) & Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA).
Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi - 00:03:34
- GIS: Reported an in-line quarter; a penny better than expectations; organic sales were down 1% which is better sequentially; gross margins were flat YoY; they did reaffirm their outlook; we don’t expect the name to perform well today.
- Long Bench – Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): We will be hosting a Black Book on Dollar Tree next Monday at 2:00pm ET; when we conclude our research, we will decide whether to move Dollar Tree to the Best Ideas Long list or whether this is a value trap that should flip to the short side; the potential upside is beyond a double, while the downside scenario of a broken growth multiple (12x) and margin pressure could see the shares 20% lower; DLTR remains on the long bench.
Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Sean Jenkins - 00:07:22
- Sports Betting: We hosted our Sports Betting & iCasino deep dive yesterday; we walked through the illegal market and what the larger TAM opportunity is; there are 3 more states that are restricting access to Bravado; now brings the total to 13 states that have issued a cease and desist to Bravado; momentum has never been like this; Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLUT) remains a long.
Retail: Jeremy McLean - 00:11:00
- Long – Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI): Yesterday was the last day of testimony; the case is not going well for the FTC; we think the probability of the deal closing is higher than what the market is underwriting; CPRI remains a long.
Health Care: Tom Tobin - 00:16:30
- Short – Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN): This will take a little longer to play out; dental has only just begun to roll over; a couple of surveys out from sell-side shops say volume looks okay; this has been a promotional-sensitive business model; vet is down and to the right in terms of consumption; sequentially, dental is getting worse; ALGN remains a short.
Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans - 00:22:31
- Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): Update on Ozempic and Novo Nordisk; Novo is talking about being part of Medicare price negotiations in 2027; these drugs are being negotiated down to the net price.
Macro, Housing, Digital Assets & Financials: Josh Steiner - 00:28:36
- New Best Idea Long – Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): We are introducing a new idea on the long side; Fair Isaac is an amazing business; for 28 years, they never raised their price; prices rose for the first time in 2018; they generate so much cash flow and normally use it to buy back stock; FICO is now a best idea long.
Industrials & Materials: Jay Van Sciver - 00:35:45
- Long – FedEx Corporation (FDX): We have FDX out after the close tomorrow; will get an update on the divestiture of FedEx Freight; FDX remains a long.
Macro Policy: JT Taylor - 00:57:03
- Congress: CR will be floated today in the House; supposed to be a 6-month CR; we think this is going to fail; there will be a lot of noise today; we will likely end up with a 3-month CR.
