watch below
|
TICKERS DISCUSSED LONGS: BRCC, DKNG, FLUT, CPRI, TPR, HCA, T, MSFT, INTC SHORTS: SJM, AMZN, META |
broadcast summary
Restaurants & Cannabis: Howard Penney - 00:01:38
- Restaurant Industry Trends: Restaurant Industry Data Black Book update tomorrow at 2:00pm ET. Knapp Track data +1.5% (Cali sales +9% and traffic +3) the standout to the upside.
Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi - 00:04:10
- Coffee: The price of arabica coffee beans has hit new highs. This will force J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) and BRC Inc. (BRCC) to raise prices in order to protect margins.
Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Sean Jenkins - 00:06:56
- NFL: Record number of underdog wins and broken spreads this past weekend across the NFL favorable for online sports betting names DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT).
- OSB & iCasino (Long – DKNG / FLUT): Presenting OSB & iCasino Deep Dive Black Book today at 12:30pm ET with a focus on the black market, disruption there, and impact on Top Longs DKNG & FLUT.
Retail: Ryan Wilson - 00:12:15
- Long – Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) / Tapestry, Inc. (TPR): Arianna back in the courtroom today as hearing resumes.
- Short Bench – Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): CEO Andy Jassy sent a letter to employees yesterday that they would be reducing headcount at the middle market level.
Health Care: Tom Tobin - 00:14:52
- Long – HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA): After a solid move higher, Tom sees modest incremental upside over the intermediate term – will be watching the macro data closely.
Macro, Housing, Digital Assets & Financials: Josh Steiner - 00:24:00
- Housing Update & Outlook: 4Q24 U.S. Housing Update & Outlook Black Book Thursday 9/19 at 12:30pm ET.
- German Current Conditions: German current conditions index reading is down -84.5, weakest since the peak of COVID. On a current conditions basis, German confidence numbers continue to be very weak. The sectors where weakness was most profound are auto and steel/mechanical engineering.
Communications & Software: Andrew Freedman - 00:38:50
- Long – AT&T Inc. (T): AT&T got a bump after indicating they are looking to sell off their pay-TV business DirecTV, a venture backed by AT&T and TPG, to EchoStar in a deal that would lead to the largest pay-TV provider in the U.S. T remains a Top Long Idea.
- Short – Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): We have seen a steep drop in Facebook/Instagram U.S. CPMs since Labor Day. In his recent Comms Wrap call, Freedman noted that "Meta’s U.S. FB/IG CPMs were strong from late July through August after a significant dip to start July. September/October will be critical." He expected to see more pronounced seasonal weakness in September/October compared to prior years. META remains a Top Short Idea.
Software: Nick Balch - 00:38:39
- Long – Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Increased dividend by 10% and announced a $60Bn share buyback.
Global Technology & Software: Felix Wang - 00:49:02
- Long Bench – Intel Corporation (INTC): Announced they are engaging another hyperscaler Amazon Web Services (AWS) in addition to existing partner MSFT. This partnership will design and develop a bespoke “SI Fabric” chip on INTC’s most advanced process Node, 18A. Following the AVGO failed test, there has been skepticism on the potential of Intel Foundry, so the AWS decision to partner with Intel on custom AI chips is a good step forward.
Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur - 00:50:17
- TikTok: Yesterday, a federal appeals court heard arguments in TikTok's challenge to legislation that requires China-based ByteDance to divest the company early next year or face a ban on distribution in the United States. We believe the three-judge panel will likely uphold the law against constitutional challenge, driving TikTok's 170 million American users to shift to other social media short video platforms, a potential boost to Meta Platforms (Facebook and Instagram) and Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOGL) YouTube. A decision should come down by early December.
