EVENT | Netflix (NFLX) 2017 Bear Case

Tuesday, December 6th at 1:00pm ET

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INVITE | NFLX 2017 Bear Case | Call Tomorrow at 1pm EST

INTRODUCTION: NFLX may be one of the most contentious names in our space.  The debate centers on whether NFLX’s business model is sustainable; specifically whether it will be able to grow its subs into its content expenditures/obligations.  We expect that debate to favor the bears next year given heightened pressure on net sub adds.  We will run through our supporting analysis, and the 2017 catalyst calendar on our call tomorrow at 1pm EST.  Key points and call details below. 

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TWTR | Covering Short (For Now)

COVERING BUT COMING BACK: TWTR move today is another reminder that there’s nothing to play for between now and the next time TWTR reports, especially since there’s always the risk of being blown up by the next round of take-out chatter.  But we’re planning on coming back closer to the next print.  TWTR’s model has taken a fundamental turn for the worse, and we continue to expect TWTR to face declining revenue growth as early as the 4Q print, and mgmt didn’t do themselves any favors by not explicitly guiding to it.  In turn, consensus is looking for slowly accelerating revenue growth from 4Q16 through 2017, and that is despite TWTR’s planned workforce reduction that is largely concentrated within Sales & Marketing.  See the note below for most recent detail on our thesis.

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PCLN | Thoughts into the Print (3Q16)

KEY POINTS

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YELP | Scary Omen (3Q16)

KEY POINTS

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YELP | Thoughts into the Print (3Q16)

KEY POINTS

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EXPE | Closing Best Idea Long

KEY POINTS

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