TAIL Time: S&P 500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: This is the first time where we’re going to legitimately test our 1364 TAIL line of support. If that line snaps, buckle up.

This note was originally published November 14, 2012 at 11:59 in Macro

POSITIONS: Long Utilities (XLU), Short Industrials (XLI)

 

Today is TAIL time. This is the first time where we’re going to legitimately test our 1364 TAIL line of support. If that line snaps, buckle up. Because there’s no real intermediate-term support from there to 1258.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

 

  1. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1419
  2. Immediate-term TRADE resistance  = 1391
  3. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1351

 

In other words, my model is already signaling that a breakdown through 1364 is probable. Meanwhile, my immediate-term Risk Range is flagging lower-highs and lower-lows for the first day since May (1351-1391).

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

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